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A simple nonparametric method to estimate the expected time to cross a threshold

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  • Nicolau, João

Abstract

We propose a simple but effective nonparametric method to estimate the expected time to cross a threshold using only two assumptions: Markovian property and stationarity. We provide an empirical application with real exchange rates to illustrate the method.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolau, João, 2017. "A simple nonparametric method to estimate the expected time to cross a threshold," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 146-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:123:y:2017:i:c:p:146-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2016.12.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicolau João, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity Analyzed from a Continuous-Time Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    3. Manzur, Meher, 1990. "An international comparison of prices and exchange rates: a new test of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 75-91, March.
    4. João Nicolau, 2014. "A New Model for Multivariate Markov Chains," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1124-1135, December.
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    1. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M, 2021. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: a simple and flexible framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Bruno Damásio & João Nicolau, 2020. "Time Inhomogeneous Multivariate Markov Chains: Detecting and Testing Multiple Structural Breaks Occurring at Unknown," Working Papers REM 2020/0136, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Euán, Carolina & Sun, Ying, 2020. "Bernoulli vector autoregressive model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2024. "First passage times in portfolio optimization: A novel nonparametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 1074-1085.
    5. Damásio, Bruno & Nicolau, João, 2024. "Time inhomogeneous multivariate Markov chains: Detecting and testing multiple structural breaks occurring at unknown dates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Inês da Cunha Cabral & João Nicolau, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 and the expected time to reach the reference rate: A nonparametric approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1608-1620, April.

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