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Genealogical transition in the noisy N-Branching Random Walk. How stronger selection may promote genetic diversity

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  • Schertzer, Emmanuel
  • Wences, Alejandro H.

Abstract

We consider an extension of the noisy N-Branching Random Walk that models the evolution of a population subject to natural selection. We show the existence of a critical value for the noise which separates the limiting genealogical structure into two regimes, which we respectively call the semi-pulled and the fully-pulled regimes. In the fully-pulled regime, the genealogy converges to a discrete time Poisson-Dirichlet coalescent. In the semi-pulled regime, the genealogy converges to the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. We discuss some interesting biological consequences of this result. In particular, our model predicts a non-monotone relation between the selection strength and the effective population size.

Suggested Citation

  • Schertzer, Emmanuel & Wences, Alejandro H., 2026. "Genealogical transition in the noisy N-Branching Random Walk. How stronger selection may promote genetic diversity," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:199:y:2026:i:c:s0304414926001079
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2026.104975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Drmota, Michael & Iksanov, Alex & Moehle, Martin & Roesler, Uwe, 2007. "Asymptotic results concerning the total branch length of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(10), pages 1404-1421, October.
    2. Schweinsberg, Jason, 2003. "Coalescent processes obtained from supercritical Galton-Watson processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 107-139, July.
    3. Rouzine, Igor M. & Brunet, Éric & Wilke, Claus O., 2008. "The traveling-wave approach to asexual evolution: Muller's ratchet and speed of adaptation," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 24-46.
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