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Approximating the Reed-Frost epidemic process

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  • Barbour, A. D.
  • Utev, Sergey

Abstract

The paper is concerned with refining two well-known approximations to the Reed-Frost epidemic process. The first is the branching process approximation in the early stages of the epidemic; we extend its range of validity, and sharpen the estimates of the error incurred. The second is the normal approximation to the distribution of the final size of a large epidemic, which we complement with a detailed local limit approximation. The latter, in particular, is relevant if the approximations are to be used for statistical inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbour, A. D. & Utev, Sergey, 2004. "Approximating the Reed-Frost epidemic process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 173-197, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:113:y:2004:i:2:p:173-197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ball, Frank & Donnelly, Peter, 1995. "Strong approximations for epidemic models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Claude Lefe`vre & Sergey Utev, 1999. "Branching Approximation for the Collective Epidemic Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 211-228, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wayne M. Getz & Jean-Paul Gonzalez & Richard Salter & James Bangura & Colin Carlson & Moinya Coomber & Eric Dougherty & David Kargbo & Nathan D. Wolfe & Nadia Wauquier, 2015. "Tactics and Strategies for Managing Ebola Outbreaks and the Salience of Immunization," Post-Print hal-01214432, HAL.
    2. Chen, Xiaowei & Chong, Wing Fung & Feng, Runhuan & Zhang, Linfeng, 2021. "Pandemic risk management: Resources contingency planning and allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 359-383.

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