Impact of rural Return Entrepreneurship pilot policies on agricultural carbon emissions in China's Yangtze river Economic Belt

This paper investigates the environmental impact of China's Rural Return Entrepreneurship Pilot Policy (RREPP) on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Using panel data from 110 prefecture-level cities spanning 2011–2020, we implement a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach combined with propensity score matching to identify the causal effect of the policy. Results indicate that RREPP significantly reduces agricultural carbon emissions, with robustness confirmed through placebo tests, sample restrictions, and spatial econometric models. Mechanism analysis suggests that the effect operates through two primary channels: (i) technological innovation, proxied by green patent authorizations, and (ii) knowledge spillovers, captured via a gravity-based spillover index. We further explore heterogeneity across regions and find stronger emission reductions in areas with higher digital infrastructure and lower educational attainment, highlighting the role of local absorptive capacity. Spatial decomposition reveals that policy effects are largely local, with limited diffusion to neighboring counties. This study contributes to the literature by linking human capital reflux with environmental performance and positioning rural entrepreneurship as a policy lever for agricultural decarbonization. Policy implications emphasize the need for regionally adaptive interventions that integrate entrepreneurship support with green technology diffusion and institutional capacity-building.