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Investor sentiment, stock mispricing, and long-term growth expectations

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  • Miwa, Kotaro

Abstract

I analyze whether or not market-wide investor sentiment induces stock mispricing, by affecting the boldness of predictions of firms’ long-term earnings growth. I predict that bullish market-wide sentiment induces investors to aggressively separate firms with high growth futures from others, and that this excessive boldness results in a high level of mispricing. Consistent with my prediction, I observe an excessively large dispersion in consensus growth forecasts when proxies for investor sentiment are high at the beginning of the period. Furthermore, stocks with higher-predicted growth experience more negative forecast revisions and lower subsequent stock returns, especially following periods of high investor sentiment.

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  • Miwa, Kotaro, 2016. "Investor sentiment, stock mispricing, and long-term growth expectations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 414-423.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:414-423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.10.003
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    6. Shangkari V. Anusakumar & Ruhani Ali & Hooy Chee Wooi, 2017. "The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Stock Returns: Insight from Emerging Asian Markets," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 13(1), pages 159-178.
    7. Habib, Ahsan & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2017. "Business strategy, overvalued equities, and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 389-405.

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