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Wind speed vertical extrapolation model validation under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Quick, Julian
  • Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo
  • Kock, Carsten Weber
  • Servizi, Valentino
  • Overgaard, Nikolaj Stokholm
  • Dimitrov, Nikolay
  • Kelly, Mark
  • Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan
  • Kim, Taeseong

Abstract

As the wind energy sector evolves, accurate predictions of complex, nonlinear phenomena are becoming increasingly crucial. While rigorous model validation frameworks are common in high-stakes disciplines like defense and safety, their adoption in wind energy has been limited. This manuscript addresses this gap by introducing a comprehensive validation framework tailored for wind energy systems. This framework integrates both aleatoric (natural variability) and epistemic (knowledge-based) uncertainties. This dual consideration allows for a more nuanced understanding of model performance, especially under varying experimental conditions. The validation framework is applied to a meteorological measurement dataset using a logarithmic vertical extrapolation model. We present a set of numerical tests that validation metrics should satisfy and compare several metrics, providing insights into the relative strengths and applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Quick, Julian & Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo & Kock, Carsten Weber & Servizi, Valentino & Overgaard, Nikolaj Stokholm & Dimitrov, Nikolay & Kelly, Mark & Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan & Kim, Taeseong, 2025. "Wind speed vertical extrapolation model validation under uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:240:y:2025:i:c:s0960148124020962
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Urbina, Angel & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Paez, Thomas L., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties of complex systems in the presence of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1114-1125.
    2. Ling, You & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2013. "Quantitative model validation techniques: New insights," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 217-231.
    3. Sankararaman, Shankar & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2011. "Model validation under epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1232-1241.
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