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Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain

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  • Carmen Carnero, María
  • José Pedregal, Diego

Abstract

The control of accidents at the work place is a critical issue all over the world. The consequences of occupational accidents in terms of costs for the company in which the accidents take place is only one minor matter, being the social impact and the loss of human life the most controversial effects of this important problem. The methods used to forecast future evolution of accidents are often limited to trend estimations and projections, being the scientific literature on this topic rather scarce. This paper aims at showing and predicting the evolution of Spanish occupational accidents of different levels of severity, allowing the evaluation of the influence that preventive actions carried out by public administrations or private companies may have over the number of occupational accidents. Though some contributions may be found on this topic for Spain, this paper is the first contribution that forecast occupational accidents for different levels of severity using Multivariate Unobserved Components models developed in a State Space framework extended to deal with the irregular sampling interval of the data. Data from 1998 to 2009 have been used to test the efficacy of the forecasting system.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Carnero, María & José Pedregal, Diego, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1134-1141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:11:p:1134-1141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & Baksteen, H. & Damen, M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Mud, M. & Oh, J. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Whiston, J.Y., 2008. "Accidents in the construction industry in the Netherlands: An analysis of accident reports using Storybuilder," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(10), pages 1523-1533.
    2. Vinnem, Jan Erik & Aven, Terje & Husebø, Torleif & Seljelid, Jorunn & Tveit, Odd J., 2006. "Major hazard risk indicators for monitoring of trends in the Norwegian offshore petroleum sector," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(7), pages 778-791.
    3. Hale, A.R. & Ale, B.J.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Heijer, T. & Bellamy, L.J & Mud, M.L. & Roelen, A. & Baksteen, H. & Post, J. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Bloemhoff, A. & Oh, J.I.H., 2007. "Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1701-1715.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marhavilas, P.K. & Koulouriotis, D.E. & Spartalis, S.H., 2013. "Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 8-25.
    2. das Chagas Moura, Márcio & Azevedo, Rafael Valença & Droguett, Enrique López & Chaves, Leandro Rego & Lins, Isis Didier & Vilela, Romulo Fernando & Filho, Romero Sales, 2016. "Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 136-146.
    3. Xu, Xin & Chen, Nan, 2017. "A state-space-based prognostics model for lithium-ion battery degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 47-57.
    4. Carnero, María del Carmen & Pedregal, Diego José, 2013. "Ex-ante assessment of the Spanish Occupational Health and Safety Strategy (2007–2012) using a State Space framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 14-21.
    5. Ioannis A. Papazoglou & Olga Aneziris & Linda Bellamy & B. J. M. Ale & Joy I. H. Oh, 2015. "Uncertainty Assessment in the Quantification of Risk Rates of Occupational Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(8), pages 1536-1561, August.
    6. Song, Guozheng & Khan, Faisal & Wang, Hangzhou & Leighton, Shelly & Yuan, Zhi & Liu, Hanwen, 2016. "Dynamic occupational risk model for offshore operations in harsh environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 58-64.
    7. Silva, Joaquim F. & Jacinto, Celeste, 2012. "Finding occupational accident patterns in the extractive industry using a systematic data mining approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 108-122.

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