IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v225y2022ics0951832022001788.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A data-driven roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment and its implementation in low-pressure turbine disk at elevated temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Run-Zi
  • Gu, Hang-Hang
  • Zhu, Shun-Peng
  • Li, Kai-Shang
  • Wang, Ji
  • Wang, Xiao-Wei
  • Hideo, Miura
  • Zhang, Xian-Cheng
  • Tu, Shan-Tung

Abstract

High-reliability life design process not only can ensure system safety in service, but also can provide scientific life management during the maintenance period. The objective of the present work is to develop a roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment. Material-level data accumulations and theoretical foundations of creep-fatigue including creep-fatigue constitutive and multi-axial damage models are introduced. Afterwards, a low-pressure turbine disk under a typical creep-fatigue load waveform is applied as a case study to demonstrate how to perform creep-fatigue reliability assessment by using this roadmap in practice. Precise weakness hotspots are identified at the mortise joint of turbine disk. Based on hotspot-based strategy, it is found that the surrogate model assisted by an optimized machine learning method enhances significantly the computational efficiency. Accordingly, the probabilistic creep-fatigue life with considering multi-sources uncertainty obeys lognormal distributions. In the aspect of failure probability analysis, the current probabilistic damage interaction diagram method with creep-fatigue interaction gives conservative reliability assessments and excellent universality as compared to traditional ones mainly used in the low cycle fatigue field. Last but not least, joint failure evaluation of the turbine disk is discussed to comprehensively consider potential failure occurrence in an averaged hot region instead of a single hotspot.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Run-Zi & Gu, Hang-Hang & Zhu, Shun-Peng & Li, Kai-Shang & Wang, Ji & Wang, Xiao-Wei & Hideo, Miura & Zhang, Xian-Cheng & Tu, Shan-Tung, 2022. "A data-driven roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment and its implementation in low-pressure turbine disk at elevated temperatures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:225:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022001788
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108523
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022001788
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108523?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Zhili & Wang, Jian & Li, Rui & Tong, Cao, 2017. "LIF: A new Kriging based learning function and its application to structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 152-165.
    2. Tabandeh, Armin & Sharma, Neetesh & Gardoni, Paolo, 2022. "Uncertainty propagation in risk and resilience analysis of hierarchical systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Qian, Gengjian & Massenzio, Michel & Brizard, Denis & Ichchou, Mohamed, 2019. "Sensitivity analysis of complex engineering systems: Approaches study and their application to vehicle restraint system crash simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 110-118.
    4. Yao, Lei & Fang, Zhanpeng & Xiao, Yanqiu & Hou, Junjian & Fu, Zhijun, 2021. "An Intelligent Fault Diagnosis Method for Lithium Battery Systems Based on Grid Search Support Vector Machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    5. Nielsen, Jannie Jessen & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2011. "On risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbine components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 218-229.
    6. Bichon, Barron J. & McFarland, John M. & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2011. "Efficient surrogate models for reliability analysis of systems with multiple failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(10), pages 1386-1395.
    7. Zhu, Shun-Peng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Peng, Weiwen & Wang, Hai-Kun & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2016. "Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Torii, André Jacomel & Novotny, Antonio André, 2021. "A priori error estimates for local reliability-based sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Xu, Zhaoyi & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2021. "Machine learning for reliability engineering and safety applications: Review of current status and future opportunities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    10. Schoefs, Franck & Chevreuil, Mathilde & Pasqualini, Olivier & Cazuguel, Mikaël, 2016. "Partial safety factor calibration from stochastic finite element computation of welded joint with random geometries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 44-54.
    11. Xiao, Ning-Cong & Zuo, Ming J. & Zhou, Chengning, 2018. "A new adaptive sequential sampling method to construct surrogate models for efficient reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 330-338.
    12. Zhao, Wei & Fan, Feng & Wang, Wei, 2017. "Non-linear partial least squares response surface method for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 69-77.
    13. Bourinet, J.-M., 2016. "Rare-event probability estimation with adaptive support vector regression surrogates," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 210-221.
    14. Wakiru, James & Pintelon, Liliane & Muchiri, Peter N. & Chemweno, Peter K., 2021. "Integrated remanufacturing, maintenance and spares policies towards life extension of a multi-component system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    15. Zhang, Jinhao & Xiao, Mi & Gao, Liang, 2019. "An active learning reliability method combining Kriging constructed with exploration and exploitation of failure region and subset simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 90-102.
    16. Shields, Michael D. & Zhang, Jiaxin, 2016. "The generalization of Latin hypercube sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 96-108.
    17. Dai, Hongzhe & Zhang, Boyi & Wang, Wei, 2015. "A multiwavelet support vector regression method for efficient reliability assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 132-139.
    18. Tang, Kayu & Parsons, David J. & Jude, Simon, 2019. "Comparison of automatic and guided learning for Bayesian networks to analyse pipe failures in the water distribution system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 24-36.
    19. Choi, Woosung & Youn, Byeng D. & Oh, Hyunseok & Kim, Nam H., 2019. "A Bayesian approach for a damage growth model using sporadically measured and heterogeneous on-site data from a steam turbine," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 137-150.
    20. Xiang, Zhengliang & Bao, Yuequan & Tang, Zhiyi & Li, Hui, 2020. "Deep reinforcement learning-based sampling method for structural reliability assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    21. Roy, Atin & Chakraborty, Subrata, 2020. "Support vector regression based metamodel by sequential adaptive sampling for reliability analysis of structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    22. Yang, Xufeng & Liu, Yongshou & Mi, Caiying & Tang, Chenghu, 2018. "System reliability analysis through active learning Kriging model with truncated candidate region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 235-241.
    23. Yoon, Joung Taek & Youn, Byeng D. & Yoo, Minji & Kim, Yunhan & Kim, Sooho, 2019. "Life-cycle maintenance cost analysis framework considering time-dependent false and missed alarms for fault diagnosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 181-192.
    24. Gao, Haifeng & Wang, Anjenq & Zio, Enrico & Bai, Guangchen, 2020. "An integrated reliability approach with improved importance sampling for low-cycle fatigue damage prediction of turbine disks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    25. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Wenbin & Mao, Jianxu & Song, Kai & Li, Zhe & Su, Yulong & Wang, Yaonan & Pan, Xiangcheng, 2023. "Structural performance prediction based on the digital twin model: A battery bracket example," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    2. Khakifirooz, Marzieh & Fathi, Michel & Lee, I-Chen & Tseng, Sheng-Tsaing, 2023. "Neural ordinary differential equation for sequential optimal design of fatigue test under accelerated life test analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Gu, Hang-Hang & Wang, Run-Zi & Tang, Min-Jin & Zhang, Xian-Cheng & Tu, Shan-Tung, 2024. "Data-physics-model based fatigue reliability assessment methodology for high-temperature components and its application in steam turbine rotor," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Gassab, Adel & Sghaier, Rabi Ben & Fathallah, Raouf, 2023. "Fatigue reliability prediction of shape memory alloy parts based on multi-scale high cycle fatigue criterion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Pan, Wei-Huang & Feng, Yun-Wen & Lu, Cheng & Liu, Jia-Qi, 2023. "Analyzing the operation reliability of aeroengine using Quick Access Recorder flight data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    6. Shen, Xingkeng & Feng, Kaixuan & Xu, Heming & Wang, Guangqiang & Zhang, Yishang & Dai, Ying & Yun, Wanying, 2023. "Reliability analysis of bending fatigue life of hydraulic pipeline," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Xu, Zhaoyi & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2021. "Machine learning for reliability engineering and safety applications: Review of current status and future opportunities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Zhang, Jinhao & Gao, Liang & Xiao, Mi, 2020. "A composite-projection-outline-based approximation method for system reliability analysis with hybrid uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Wei, Pengfei & Liu, Fuchao & Tang, Chenghu, 2018. "Reliability and reliability-based importance analysis of structural systems using multiple response Gaussian process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 183-195.
    5. Roy, Atin & Chakraborty, Subrata, 2023. "Support vector machine in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Teixeira, Rui & Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz & Nogal, Maria & O’Connor, Alan, 2021. "Reliability analysis using a multi-metamodel complement-basis approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    7. Zhang, Chi & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2022. "Simulation-free reliability analysis with active learning and Physics-Informed Neural Network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    8. Xu, Yanwen & Kohtz, Sara & Boakye, Jessica & Gardoni, Paolo & Wang, Pingfeng, 2023. "Physics-informed machine learning for reliability and systems safety applications: State of the art and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    9. Wei, Pengfei & Zheng, Yu & Fu, Jiangfeng & Xu, Yuannan & Gao, Weikai, 2023. "An expected integrated error reduction function for accelerating Bayesian active learning of failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Wang, Zeyu & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2020. "Real-time high-fidelity reliability updating with equality information using adaptive Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming & Gao, Liang & Li, Peigen, 2019. "A general failure-pursuing sampling framework for surrogate-based reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 47-59.
    12. Wang, Jinsheng & Xu, Guoji & Li, Yongle & Kareem, Ahsan, 2022. "AKSE: A novel adaptive Kriging method combining sampling region scheme and error-based stopping criterion for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    13. Cheng, Kai & Lu, Zhenzhou, 2021. "Adaptive Bayesian support vector regression model for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    14. Xiongxiong You & Mengya Zhang & Diyin Tang & Zhanwen Niu, 2022. "An active learning method combining adaptive kriging and weighted penalty for structural reliability analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(1), pages 160-172, February.
    15. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Wang, Dapeng & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming, 2020. "EEK-SYS: System reliability analysis through estimation error-guided adaptive Kriging approximation of multiple limit state surfaces," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Shi, Yan & Lu, Zhenzhou & He, Ruyang & Zhou, Yicheng & Chen, Siyu, 2020. "A novel learning function based on Kriging for reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    17. Guo, Qing & Liu, Yongshou & Chen, Bingqian & Yao, Qin, 2021. "A variable and mode sensitivity analysis method for structural system using a novel active learning Kriging model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    18. Zhou, Yicheng & Lu, Zhenzhou & Yun, Wanying, 2020. "Active sparse polynomial chaos expansion for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    19. Roy, Atin & Chakraborty, Subrata, 2022. "Reliability analysis of structures by a three-stage sequential sampling based adaptive support vector regression model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    20. Zuhal, Lavi Rizki & Faza, Ghifari Adam & Palar, Pramudita Satria & Liem, Rhea Patricia, 2021. "On dimensionality reduction via partial least squares for Kriging-based reliability analysis with active learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:225:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022001788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.