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A formal method for including the probability of erroneous human task behavior in system analyses

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  • Bolton, Matthew L.
  • Zheng, Xi
  • Kang, Eunsuk

Abstract

Formal methods have been making inroads into the engineering of human–automation interaction (HAI) by allowing engineers to use mathematical proofs to determine whether normative or unanticipated erroneous human behavior can ever cause problems. However, these approaches are limited because they do not give engineers a way to assess the relative likelihood of different outcomes. In this work, we address this shortcoming by defining a new approach that combines formal approaches with human reliability analysis and probabilistic and statistical model checking. This approach ultimately allows analysts to compute the probability of different outcomes occurring in reactive HAI systems. We describe how this method was realized, assess its scalability, and demonstrate its capabilities with an automated teller machine example. We ultimately discuss our results and describe directions of future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Bolton, Matthew L. & Zheng, Xi & Kang, Eunsuk, 2021. "A formal method for including the probability of erroneous human task behavior in system analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021002921
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Di Pasquale, Valentina & Miranda, Salvatore & Iannone, Raffaele & Riemma, Stefano, 2015. "A Simulator for Human Error Probability Analysis (SHERPA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 17-32.
    2. Reer, Bernhard, 2008. "Review of advances in human reliability analysis of errors of commission—Part 2: EOC quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(8), pages 1105-1122.
    3. Bolton, Matthew L. & Molinaro, Kylie A. & Houser, Adam M., 2019. "A formal method for assessing the impact of task-based erroneous human behavior on system safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 168-180.
    4. Raffaele Iannone & Salvatore Miranda & Stefano Riemma & Valentina Di Pasquale, 2013. "An Overview of Human Reliability Analysis Techniques in Manufacturing Operations," Chapters, in: Massimiliano M. Schiraldi (ed.), Operations Management, IntechOpen.
    5. Bedford, Tim & Bayley, Clare & Revie, Matthew, 2013. "Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 100-110.
    6. He, Xuhong & Wang, Yao & Shen, Zupei & Huang, Xiangrui, 2008. "A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 298-306.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magoua, Joseph Jonathan & Li, Nan, 2023. "The human factor in the disaster resilience modeling of critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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