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Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees

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  • Ruijters, Enno
  • Reijsbergen, Daniël
  • de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk
  • Stoelinga, Mariëlle

Abstract

Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of simulations required to obtain accurate estimations grows extremely large in the presence of rare events, i.e., events whose probability of occurrence is very low, which typically holds for failures in highly reliable systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruijters, Enno & Reijsbergen, Daniël & de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk & Stoelinga, Mariëlle, 2019. "Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 220-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:220-231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Durga Rao, K. & Gopika, V. & Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S. & Kushwaha, H.S. & Verma, A.K. & Srividya, A., 2009. "Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 872-883.
    2. Pierre L’Ecuyer & Bruno Tuffin, 2011. "Approximating zero-variance importance sampling in a reliability setting," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 277-297, September.
    3. Kaiser, Bernhard & Gramlich, Catharina & Förster, Marc, 2007. "State/event fault trees—A safety analysis model for software-controlled systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(11), pages 1521-1537.
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    2. Wang, Shaoxuan & Yao, Yuantao & Ge, Daochuan & Lin, Zhixian & Wu, Jie & Yu, Jie, 2023. "Reliability evaluation of standby redundant systems based on the survival signatures methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. Yılmaz, Emre & German, Brian J. & Pritchett, Amy R., 2023. "Optimizing resource allocations to improve system reliability via the propagation of statistical moments through fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
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    7. Bistouni, Fathollah & Jahanshahi, Mohsen, 2019. "Reliability-aware ring protection link selection in Ethernet ring mesh networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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