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Mission abort policy balancing the uncompleted mission penalty and system loss risk

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  • Levitin, Gregory
  • Finkelstein, Maxim
  • Dai, Yuanshun

Abstract

Mission abort policy is an effective tool for enhancing survivability of many real-world systems when a failure during a mission results in a substantial economic loss. When continuation of a mission is associated with high risks, its primary task can be aborted and a rescue procedure can be initiated to enhance survivability, and therefore, to decrease losses. When the uncompleted tasks for the aborted mission are associated with monetary losses, the tradeoff between the possible losses associated with the uncompleted mission and with the system failure should be balanced. In this paper, we develop a methodology for evaluating the expected uncompleted fraction of a mission and survivability of systems experiencing both internal failures and external shocks. We consider a policy when a mission is aborted and a rescue procedure is activated if the mth shock occurs before time ξ since the mission start. Then we demonstrate the tradeoff between the probability of a system loss and the expected uncompleted fraction of a mission and formulate the corresponding problem of the optimal choice of the decision variables m and ξ. An illustrative example of a mission performed by an unmanned aerial vehicle is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Dai, Yuanshun, 2018. "Mission abort policy balancing the uncompleted mission penalty and system loss risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 194-201.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:176:y:2018:i:c:p:194-201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.04.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2018. "Optimal mission abort policy for systems in a random environment with variable shock rate," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 11-17.
    2. Maxim Finkelstein, 2008. "Failure Rate Modelling for Reliability and Risk," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84800-986-8, October.
    3. Peng, Rui & Xiao, Hui & Liu, Hanlin, 2017. "Reliability of multi-state systems with a performance sharing group of limited size," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 164-170.
    4. Maxim Finkelstein & Ji Hwan Cha, 2013. "Burn-in for Heterogeneous Populations," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Stochastic Modeling for Reliability, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 261-312, Springer.
    5. Rui Peng & Gregory Levitin & Min Xie & Szu Hui Ng, 2012. "Optimal Replacement and Protection Strategy for Parallel Systems," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Anatoly Lisnianski & Ilia Frenkel (ed.), Recent Advances in System Reliability, chapter 0, pages 135-144, Springer.
    6. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2017. "Optimal loading of series parallel systems with arbitrary element time-to-failure and time-to-repair distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 34-44.
    7. Maxim Finkelstein & Ji Hwan Cha, 2013. "Shocks as Burn-in," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Stochastic Modeling for Reliability, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 313-361, Springer.
    8. Gut, Allan & Hüsler, Jürg, 2005. "Realistic variation of shock models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 187-204, September.
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