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Methodology to evaluate the monetary benefit of Probabilistic Risk Assessment by modeling the net value of Risk-Informed Applications at nuclear power plants

Author

Listed:
  • Pence, Justin
  • Abolhelm, Marzieh
  • Mohaghegh, Zahra
  • Reihani, Seyed
  • Ertem, Mehmet
  • Kee, Ernie

Abstract

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) used in Nuclear Power Plants serves as a pillar of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Risk-Informed Regulatory framework, and is required for new reactor licenses to satisfy regulatory safety compliance. The benefits of PRA are not only experienced in terms of safety, but also from the monetary value derived from Risk-Informed Performance-Based Applications (RIPBAs), where risk estimated from PRA is utilized in decision making to expand the safe operational envelope of plants, leading to either an increase in profits or a reduction in costs. This paper introduces a methodology to evaluate this monetary value by the systematic causal modeling of the net value of RIPBAs and demonstrates the methodology for one of the RIPBAs, called Risk-Managed Technical Specifications (RMTS). The key steps of this methodology are: (i) Cost-Benefit Analysis to formulate the net value of PRA based on the net value of RIPBAs, (ii) Causal modeling to systematically model the operational scenarios leading to costs and benefits associated with RIPBAs, (iii) Uncertainty analysis, and (iv) Sensitivity analysis and validation. The results of this research could help decision makers with evaluating investment strategies in PRA that go ‘beyond-compliance’ to maximize industry profit while maintaining regulatory safety goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Pence, Justin & Abolhelm, Marzieh & Mohaghegh, Zahra & Reihani, Seyed & Ertem, Mehmet & Kee, Ernie, 2018. "Methodology to evaluate the monetary benefit of Probabilistic Risk Assessment by modeling the net value of Risk-Informed Applications at nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 171-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:175:y:2018:i:c:p:171-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohaghegh, Zahra & Kazemi, Reza & Mosleh, Ali, 2009. "Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(5), pages 1000-1018.
    2. Stuart Shapiro, 2011. "The Evolution of Cost–Benefit Analysis in US Regulatory Decisionmaking," Chapters, in: David Levi-Faur (ed.), Handbook on the Politics of Regulation, chapter 28, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Eads, George C. & Hahn, Robert W. & Lave, Lester B. & Noll, Roger G. & Portney, Paul R. & Russell, Milson & Schmalensee, Richard & Smith, V. Kerry & Stavins, , 1997. "Is there a role for benefit-cost analysis in environmental, health, and safety regulation?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 195-221, May.
    4. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Kopp, Raymond J. & Krupnick, Alan J. & Toman, Michael, 1997. "Cost-Benefit Analysis and Regulatory Reform: An Assessment of the Science and the Art," Discussion Papers 10851, Resources for the Future.
    6. Modarres, Mohammad, 2009. "Advanced nuclear power plant regulation using risk-informed and performance-based methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 211-217.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian C. Blanco & Felipe Caro & Charles J. Corbett, 2019. "Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2197-2213, October.

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