IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v161y2017icp53-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An ensemble classifier to predict track geometry degradation

Author

Listed:
  • Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván
  • Sarmiento, Carlos A.
  • Morales, Gilberto A.
  • Bolivar, Manuel A.
  • Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha

Abstract

Railway operations are inherently complex and source of several problems. In particular, track geometry defects are one of the leading causes of train accidents in the United States. This paper presents a solution approach which entails the construction of an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. Our classifier is constructed by solving the problem from three different perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. We considered a different model from each perspective and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván & Sarmiento, Carlos A. & Morales, Gilberto A. & Bolivar, Manuel A. & Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha, 2017. "An ensemble classifier to predict track geometry degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 53-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:53-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.12.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016310109
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2016.12.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qing He & Hongfei Li & Debarun Bhattacharjya & Dhaivat P Parikh & Arun Hampapur, 2015. "Track geometry defect rectification based on track deterioration modelling and derailment risk assessment," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 392-404, March.
    2. Nicolai, Robin P. & Dekker, Rommert & van Noortwijk, Jan M., 2007. "A comparison of models for measurable deterioration: An application to coatings on steel structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1635-1650.
    3. Kallen, M.J. & van Noortwijk, J.M., 2005. "Optimal maintenance decisions under imperfect inspection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 177-185.
    4. J Zhao & A H C Chan & M P N Burrow, 2007. "Reliability analysis and maintenance decision for railway sleepers using track condition information," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(8), pages 1047-1055, August.
    5. Andrade, A.R. & Teixeira, P.F., 2015. "Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using Hierarchical Bayesian models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 169-183.
    6. van Noortwijk, J.M., 2009. "A survey of the application of gamma processes in maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-21.
    7. Wickham, Hadley, 2014. "Tidy Data," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 59(i10).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zeki Murat Çınar & Abubakar Abdussalam Nuhu & Qasim Zeeshan & Orhan Korhan & Mohammed Asmael & Babak Safaei, 2020. "Machine Learning in Predictive Maintenance towards Sustainable Smart Manufacturing in Industry 4.0," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-42, October.
    2. Wang, Ning & Xu, Yan & Wang, Sutong, 2022. "Interpretable boosting tree ensemble method for multisource building fire loss prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Sedghi, Mahdieh & Kauppila, Osmo & Bergquist, Bjarne & Vanhatalo, Erik & Kulahci, Murat, 2021. "A taxonomy of railway track maintenance planning and scheduling: A review and research trends," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Neves Costa, João & Ambrósio, Jorge & Andrade, António R. & Frey, Daniel, 2023. "Safety assessment using computer experiments and surrogate modeling: Railway vehicle safety and track quality indices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M D Pandey & T Cheng & J A M van der Weide, 2011. "Finite-time maintenance cost analysis of engineering systems affected by stochastic degradation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(2), pages 241-250, June.
    2. de Jonge, Bram & Teunter, Ruud & Tinga, Tiedo, 2017. "The influence of practical factors on the benefits of condition-based maintenance over time-based maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 21-30.
    3. Kuniewski, Sebastian P. & van der Weide, Johannes A.M. & van Noortwijk, Jan M., 2009. "Sampling inspection for the evaluation of time-dependent reliability of deteriorating systems under imperfect defect detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1480-1490.
    4. Cheng, Tianjin & Pandey, Mahesh D. & van der Weide, J.A.M., 2012. "The probability distribution of maintenance cost of a system affected by the gamma process of degradation: Finite time solution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 65-76.
    5. Thomas Michael Welte & Iver Bakken Sperstad & Espen Høegh Sørum & Magne Lorentzen Kolstad, 2017. "Integration of Degradation Processes in a Strategic Offshore Wind Farm O&M Simulation Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Nicolai, R.P. & Frenk, J.B.G. & Dekker, R., 2007. "Modelling and Optimizing Imperfect Maintenance of Coatings on Steel Structures," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-043-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Liu, Xingheng & Matias, José & Jäschke, Johannes & Vatn, Jørn, 2022. "Gibbs sampler for noisy Transformed Gamma process: Inference and remaining useful life estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Wang, Changxi & Elsayed, Elsayed A., 2020. "Stochastic modeling of corrosion growth," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    9. Hong, H.P. & Zhou, W. & Zhang, S. & Ye, W., 2014. "Optimal condition-based maintenance decisions for systems with dependent stochastic degradation of components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 276-288.
    10. Guo, Chiming & Wang, Wenbin & Guo, Bo & Si, Xiaosheng, 2013. "A maintenance optimization model for mission-oriented systems based on Wiener degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 183-194.
    11. Esposito, Nicola & Mele, Agostino & Castanier, Bruno & GIORGIO, Massimiliano, 2023. "A hybrid maintenance policy for a deteriorating unit in the presence of three forms of variability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    12. C Meier-Hirmer & G Riboulet & F Sourget & M Roussignol, 2009. "Maintenance optimization for a system with a gamma deterioration process and intervention delay: Application to track maintenance," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 223(3), pages 189-198, September.
    13. Hazra, Indranil & Pandey, Mahesh D. & Manzana, Noldainerick, 2020. "Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method for estimating parameters of the gamma process using noisy data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Guida, M. & Postiglione, F. & Pulcini, G., 2012. "A time-discrete extended gamma process for time-dependent degradation phenomena," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 73-79.
    15. Lee, Juseong & Mitici, Mihaela, 2020. "An integrated assessment of safety and efficiency of aircraft maintenance strategies using agent-based modelling and stochastic Petri nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    16. Zheng, Rui & Chen, Bingkun & Gu, Liudong, 2020. "Condition-based maintenance with dynamic thresholds for a system using the proportional hazards model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Ponchet, Amélie & Fouladirad, Mitra & Grall, Antoine, 2010. "Assessment of a maintenance model for a multi-deteriorating mode system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1244-1254.
    18. Fauriat, William & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Optimization of an aperiodic sequential inspection and condition-based maintenance policy driven by value of information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    19. Vale, Cecília & M. Lurdes, Simões, 2013. "Stochastic model for the geometrical rail track degradation process in the Portuguese railway Northern Line," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 91-98.
    20. Giorgio, Massimiliano & Pulcini, Gianpaolo, 2024. "The effect of model misspecification of the bounded transformed gamma process on maintenance optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:53-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.