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Estimating intergenerational returns to medical care: New evidence from at-risk newborns

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  • Clarke, Damian
  • Lillo Bustos, Nicolás
  • Tapia-Schythe, Kathya

Abstract

We examine whether intensive early-life government-funded interventions targeted to at-risk newborns are transmitted intergenerationally. Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data from Chile we follow women up to the age of 25, and document the surprising fact that children of individuals who were treated at birth have worse indicators of health at birth a generation later. We suggest this owes to selective fertility, finding that marginally treated individuals are substantially more likely to give birth. These new stylised facts suggest that in certain circumstances, the long-term implications of public investments within family lineages may be quite different to their short-term implications, placing more weight on necessary reinforcing interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Damian & Lillo Bustos, Nicolás & Tapia-Schythe, Kathya, 2026. "Estimating intergenerational returns to medical care: New evidence from at-risk newborns," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:256:y:2026:i:c:s0047272726000332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105597
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Arrizaga, Rubí & Clarke, Damian & Cubillos, Pedro & Ruiz-Tagle, Cristóbal, 2025. "Smoke Signals: Understanding Temporal Dynamics of Wildfire Exposure on Health and Education," IZA Discussion Papers 18256, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Arrizaga, Rubí & Clarke, Damian & Cubillos, Pedro P. & Ruiz-Tagle V., Cristóbal, 2023. "Wildfires and Human Health: Evidence from 15 Wildfire Seasons in Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12954, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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