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Will Trump win again in the 2020 election? An answer from a sociophysics model

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  • Galam, Serge

Abstract

This paper predicting Trump victory has been submitted before the election and revised after, allowing to add a Foreword and Note Added in Revision to discuss in details both the causes of the failure of the prediction and what has been robust in its making.

Suggested Citation

  • Galam, Serge, 2021. "Will Trump win again in the 2020 election? An answer from a sociophysics model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:570:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121001072
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galam, Serge, 2010. "Public debates driven by incomplete scientific data: The cases of evolution theory, global warming and H1N1 pandemic influenza," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(17), pages 3619-3631.
    2. Boschi, Gioia & Cammarota, Chiara & Kühn, Reimer, 2020. "Opinion dynamics with emergent collective memory: A society shaped by its own past," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    3. Galam, Serge & Jacobs, Frans, 2007. "The role of inflexible minorities in the breaking of democratic opinion dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 381(C), pages 366-376.
    4. Hołyst, Janusz A. & Kacperski, Krzysztof & Schweitzer, Frank, 2000. "Phase transitions in social impact models of opinion formation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 199-210.
    5. Galam, Serge, 2011. "Collective beliefs versus individual inflexibility: The unavoidable biases of a public debate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(17), pages 3036-3054.
    6. Vilela, André L.M. & Pereira, Luiz Felipe C. & Dias, Laercio & Stanley, H. Eugene & da Silva, Luciano R., 2021. "Majority-vote model with limited visibility: An investigation into filter bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    7. Agnieszka Kowalska-Styczeń & Krzysztof Malarz, 2020. "Noise induced unanimity and disorder in opinion formation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-22, July.
    8. Bartłomiej Nowak & Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron, 2019. "Homogeneous Symmetrical Threshold Model with Nonconformity: Independence versus Anticonformity," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jonghoon & Jeong, Hyeong-Chai & Baek, Seung Ki, 2022. "Symmetric Nash equilibrium of political polarization in a two-party system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).
    2. Toth, Gabor & Galam, Serge, 2022. "Deviations from the majority: A local flip model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Crokidakis, Nuno & Galam, Serge, 2022. "After 2018 Bolsonaro victory, is a 2022 remake feasible?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).

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