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A censored Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process for rainfall modeling and derivatives pricing

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  • Tong, Zhigang
  • Liu, Allen

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to model rainfall based on a continuous time latent process. In this model, both parts of rainfall process — occurrence and intensity, are determined by a censored power-transformed Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process. When the latent variable takes negative values, the rainfall is censored and takes the value of zero. The new model is tractable and we are able to derive the analytical formulas for rainfall future and future option prices by employing the eigenfunction expansion method. We also carry out an empirical study where the parameters of the model are estimated using the maximum likelihood. The estimation results demonstrate the superior goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. To further enhance the model’s ability to capture the extreme rainfalls, we extend the censored OU model to a censored subordinate OU model where the latent process is modeled by the OU process time changed by Lévy subordinators.

Suggested Citation

  • Tong, Zhigang & Liu, Allen, 2021. "A censored Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process for rainfall modeling and derivatives pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:566:y:2021:i:c:s0378437120309171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jing Li & Lingfei Li & Rafael Mendoza-Arriaga, 2016. "Additive subordination and its applications in finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 589-634, July.
    2. Zhigang Tong & Allen Liu, 2018. "Analytical pricing of discrete arithmetic Asian options under generalized CIR process with time change," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Zhigang Tong & Allen Liu, 2017. "Analytical pricing formulas for discretely sampled generalized variance swaps under stochastic time change," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02n03), pages 1-24, June.
    4. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
    5. Kevin Z. Tong & Allen Liu, 2019. "Option pricing in a subdiffusive constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Ragnhild Noven & Almut Veraart & Axel Gandy, 2015. "A Lévy-driven rainfall model with applications to futures pricing," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(4), pages 403-432, October.
    7. Li, Jing & Li, Lingfei & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2017. "Pure jump models for pricing and hedging VIX derivatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 28-55.
    8. Gunther Leobacher & Philip Ngare, 2011. "On Modelling and Pricing Rainfall Derivatives with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 71-91.
    9. Dongjae Lim & Lingfei Li & Vadim Linetsky, 2012. "Evaluating Callable and Putable Bonds: An Eigenfunction Expansion Approach," Papers 1206.5046, arXiv.org.
    10. René Carmona & Pavel Diko, 2005. "Pricing Precipitation Based Derivatives," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 959-988.
    11. Lim, Dongjae & Li, Lingfei & Linetsky, Vadim, 2012. "Evaluating callable and putable bonds: An eigenfunction expansion approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1888-1908.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal exercise of American options under time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Papers 2211.04095, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.

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