Continuum modelling of pedestrian flows — Part 2: Sensitivity analysis featuring crowd movement phenomena

In recent years numerous pedestrian simulation tools have been developed that can support crowd managers and government officials in their tasks. New technologies to monitor pedestrian flows are in dire need of models that allow for rapid state-estimation. Many contemporary pedestrian simulation tools model the movements of pedestrians at a microscopic level, which does not provide an exact solution. Macroscopic models capture the fundamental characteristics of the traffic state at a more aggregate level, and generally have a closed form solution which is necessary for rapid state estimation for traffic management purposes. This contribution presents a next step in the calibration and validation of the macroscopic continuum model detailed in Hoogendoorn et al. (2014). The influence of global and local route choice on the development of crowd movement phenomena, such as dissipation, lane-formation and stripe-formation, is studied. This study shows that most self-organization phenomena and behavioural trends only develop under very specific conditions, and as such can only be simulated using specific parameter sets. Moreover, all crowd movement phenomena can be reproduced by means of the continuum model using one parameter set. This study concludes that the incorporation of local route choice behaviour and the balancing of the aptitude of pedestrians with respect to their own class and other classes are both essential in the correct prediction of crowd movement dynamics.