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Contagion effects in a chartist–fundamentalist model with time delays


  • Dibeh, Ghassan


In this paper two models of speculative markets are developed to study the effects of feedback mechanisms in financial markets. In the first model, a crash market model couples a linear chartist–fundamentalist model with time delays with a log-periodic market index I(t) through direct coupling. Numerical solutions to the model show that asset prices exhibit significant persistence as a result of the coupling to the log-periodic market index. An extension to include endogenous wealth dynamics shows that the chartists benefit from the persistent dynamics induced by the coupling. The second model is a two-asset model represented by a 2-dimensional delay-differential equation. Asset one price exhibits limit cycle dynamics while in the second market asset prices follow stable damped oscillations. The markets are coupled through a diffusive coupling term. Solutions to the coupled model show that the dynamics of asset two changes fundamentally with the price now exhibiting a limit cycle. The stable converging dynamics is replaced with limit cycle oscillations around the fundamental.

Suggested Citation

  • Dibeh, Ghassan, 2007. "Contagion effects in a chartist–fundamentalist model with time delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 52-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:382:y:2007:i:1:p:52-57 DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.02.007

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-508, December.
    2. Maskawa, Jun-ichi, 2003. "Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 317-322.
    3. Dellas, Harris & Hess, Martin, 2005. "Financial development and stock returns: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 891-912, October.
    4. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
    5. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2005. "Speculative dynamics in a time-delay model of asset prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 199-208.
    6. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October.
    7. Serwa, Dobromil & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 344-362, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghassan Dibeh & Haidar Harmanani, 2012. "A Stochastic Chartist–Fundamentalist Model with Time Delays," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 105-113, August.
    2. Wang, Luxuan & Niu, Ben & Wei, Junjie, 2016. "Dynamical analysis for a model of asset prices with two delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 297-313.


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