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The quality of securities firms' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations: Do informational advantages, reputation and experience matter in China?

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  • Bartholdy, Jan
  • Feng, Tiyi

Abstract

Do informational advantages, reputation and experience lead to better earnings forecasts and stock recommendations? It is shown that for local Chinese securities firms both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations are, in general, biased upwards and financial markets view stock recommendations as having new information. Contrary to the literature, securities firms who acted as investment bankers and securities firms with headquarters close to the stock's headquarters do not issue better or worse earnings forecasts than the average securities firms nor do financial markets view recommendation for these as having more information than recommendations issued by the average securities firms. But financial markets view recommendations from securities firms located in the financial centres as having more information. “Star” analysts do indeed issue more accurate earnings forecast but highly ranked securities firms do not. Finally, general experience of the securities firms reduces forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartholdy, Jan & Feng, Tiyi, 2013. "The quality of securities firms' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations: Do informational advantages, reputation and experience matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 66-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:66-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.02.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    2. Choijil, Enkhbayar & Méndez, Christian Espinosa & Wong, Wing-Keung & Vieito, João Paulo & Batmunkh, Munkh-Ulzii, 2022. "Thirty years of herd behavior in financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Demirbag, Mehmet & McGuinness, Martina & Akin, Ahmet & Bayyurt, Nizamettin & Basti, Eyup, 2016. "The professional service firm (PSF) in a globalised economy: A study of the efficiency of securities firms in an emerging market," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1089-1102.
    4. Tien Hoang Nguyen, & Xuan Minh Nguyen, & Thi Thu Ha Nguyen, & Quoc Trung Tran, 2017. "Ownership structure and performance of professional service firms in a declining industry: Evidence from Vietnamese securities firms," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(2), pages 142-151, May.
    5. Nguyen, Thien Hoang & Nguyen, Xuan Minh & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Tran, Quoc Trung, 2017. "Ownership structure and performance of professional service firms in a declining industry: Evidence from Vietnamese securities firms1," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(2).
    6. Chen, Chao & Shi, Haina & Xu, Haoping, 2014. "The IPO underwriting market share in China: Do ownership and quality matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 177-189.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings forecasts; Stock recommendations;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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