IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v210y2023icp82-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fractional-order deterministic epidemic model for the spread and control of HIV/AIDS with special reference to Mexico and India

Author

Listed:
  • Mangal, Shiv
  • Misra, O.P.
  • Dhar, Joydip

Abstract

This paper introduces a deterministic fractional-order epidemic model (FOEM) for studying the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The model highlights the substantial role of unaware and undetected HIV-infected individuals in spreading the disease. Control strategies, such as wielding condoms, level of preventive measures to avoid infection, and self-strictness of susceptibles in sexual contact, have been incorporated into the study. The basic reproduction number ℛ0α has been derived, which suggests the conditions for ensuring the persistence and elimination of the disease. Further, to validate the model, actual HIV data taken from Mexico and India separately have been used. The disease dynamics and its control in both countries are analyzed broadly. The values of biological parameters are estimated at which numerical solutions better match the actual data of HIV patients in the case of fractional-order (FO) instead of integer-order (IO). Moreover, in the light of ℛ0α, our findings forecast that the disease will abide in the population in Mexico, and at the same time, it will die out from India after a long time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mangal, Shiv & Misra, O.P. & Dhar, Joydip, 2023. "Fractional-order deterministic epidemic model for the spread and control of HIV/AIDS with special reference to Mexico and India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 82-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:82-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2023.03.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475423001131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.matcom.2023.03.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Garrappa, 2018. "Numerical Solution of Fractional Differential Equations: A Survey and a Software Tutorial," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Naik, Parvaiz Ahmad & Zu, Jian & Owolabi, Kolade M., 2020. "Global dynamics of a fractional order model for the transmission of HIV epidemic with optimal control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Naik, Parvaiz Ahmad & Zu, Jian & Owolabi, Kolade M., 2020. "Modeling the mechanics of viral kinetics under immune control during primary infection of HIV-1 with treatment in fractional order," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    4. Ameen, I. & Baleanu, Dumitru & Ali, Hegagi Mohamed, 2020. "An efficient algorithm for solving the fractional optimal control of SIRV epidemic model with a combination of vaccination and treatment," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Sung Kyu Choi & Bowon Kang & Namjip Koo, 2014. "Stability for Caputo Fractional Differential Systems," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-6, January.
    6. Naik, Parvaiz Ahmad & Owolabi, Kolade M. & Yavuz, Mehmet & Zu, Jian, 2020. "Chaotic dynamics of a fractional order HIV-1 model involving AIDS-related cancer cells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Abidemi, Afeez & Owolabi, Kolade M. & Pindza, Edson, 2022. "Modelling the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever with nonlinear incidence rate and vertical transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 597(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Fatmawati,, 2023. "A fractional mathematical model of heartwater transmission dynamics considering nymph and adult amblyomma ticks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samad Noeiaghdam & Sanda Micula & Juan J. Nieto, 2021. "A Novel Technique to Control the Accuracy of a Nonlinear Fractional Order Model of COVID-19: Application of the CESTAC Method and the CADNA Library," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Abidemi, Afeez & Owolabi, Kolade M. & Pindza, Edson, 2022. "Modelling the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever with nonlinear incidence rate and vertical transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 597(C).
    3. Özköse, Fatma & Yavuz, Mehmet & Şenel, M. Tamer & Habbireeh, Rafla, 2022. "Fractional order modelling of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant containing heart attack effect using real data from the United Kingdom," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Samad Noeiaghdam & Aliona Dreglea & Hüseyin Işık & Muhammad Suleman, 2021. "A Comparative Study between Discrete Stochastic Arithmetic and Floating-Point Arithmetic to Validate the Results of Fractional Order Model of Malaria Infection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Attaullah, & Jan, Rashid & Yüzbaşı, Şuayip, 2021. "Dynamical behaviour of HIV Infection with the influence of variable source term through Galerkin method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Naik, Parvaiz Ahmad & Owolabi, Kolade M. & Yavuz, Mehmet & Zu, Jian, 2020. "Chaotic dynamics of a fractional order HIV-1 model involving AIDS-related cancer cells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Mishra, A.M. & Purohit, S.D. & Owolabi, K.M. & Sharma, Y.D., 2020. "A nonlinear epidemiological model considering asymptotic and quarantine classes for SARS CoV-2 virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Faïçal Ndaïrou & Delfim F. M. Torres, 2023. "Pontryagin Maximum Principle for Incommensurate Fractional-Orders Optimal Control Problems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-12, October.
    9. Dmytro Sytnyk & Barbara Wohlmuth, 2023. "Exponentially Convergent Numerical Method for Abstract Cauchy Problem with Fractional Derivative of Caputo Type," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-35, May.
    10. Hansin Bilgili & Chwen Sheu, 2022. "A Bibliometric Review of the Mathematics Journal," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Bansal, Komal & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2023. "Fractional-order crime propagation model with non-linear transmission rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    12. Defterli, Ozlem, 2021. "Comparative analysis of fractional order dengue model with temperature effect via singular and non-singular operators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Majumdar, Prahlad & Mondal, Bapin & Debnath, Surajit & Ghosh, Uttam, 2022. "Controlling of periodicity and chaos in a three dimensional prey predator model introducing the memory effect," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    14. Moualkia, Seyfeddine, 2023. "Mathematical analysis of new variant Omicron model driven by Lévy noise and with variable-order fractional derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    15. Fiaz, Muhammad & Aqeel, Muhammad & Marwan, Muhammad & Sabir, Muhammad, 2022. "Integer and fractional order analysis of a 3D system and generalization of synchronization for a class of chaotic systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    16. Joshi, Divya D. & Bhalekar, Sachin & Gade, Prashant M., 2023. "Controlling fractional difference equations using feedback," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    17. Ali, Hegagi Mohamed & Ameen, Ismail Gad, 2021. "Optimal control strategies of a fractional order model for Zika virus infection involving various transmissions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Agus Suryanto & Isnani Darti & Hasan S. Panigoro & Adem Kilicman, 2019. "A Fractional-Order Predator–Prey Model with Ratio-Dependent Functional Response and Linear Harvesting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-13, November.
    19. Ravi Kanth, A.S.V. & Devi, Sangeeta, 2022. "A computational approach for numerical simulations of the fractal–fractional autoimmune disease model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    20. Kai Diethelm, 2022. "A New Diffusive Representation for Fractional Derivatives, Part II: Convergence Analysis of the Numerical Scheme," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:82-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.