IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v110y2025ics0301420725002685.html

Assessment of critical minerals supply chain for the United States in perspective of trade restriction by foreign countries

Author

Listed:
  • Moon, Ji Won
  • Xun, Sean Y.
  • Chung, Jaewon
  • Textoris, Steven D.

Abstract

In this study, major global producers of the 50 critical minerals designated by the United States government in 2022 were investigated to analyze the supply chain vulnerability to the United States by screening a single foreign country’s role at extraction, processing, and trade. The “freedom in the world” indicator was integrated into these stages to calculate the score of potential risk (Spr), which this study introduced to assess the likelihood of supply chain disruptions. The commodities with high scores of Spr (Tier 1) matched the ones with existing export-controlled critical minerals imposed by China until 2023, which include gallium, germanium, graphite, rare earths, and tungsten. In order of Spr, the remaining minerals were classified into tiers of potential supply risk: Tier 1 (Spr ≥ 50%) indicates high risk (bismuth, magnesium, antimony, and tellurium); Tier 2 (50% > Spr ≥ 32%), moderate risk (indium, vanadium, arsenic, tantalum, and zirconium); and Tier 3 (Spr < 32% with high potential risk if geopolitical conditions change), low to sensitive risk (niobium and platinum). The effectiveness of the approach was further demonstrated by the 2024 export controls implemented by China on antimony, bismuth, and magnesium, which were all classified as Tier 1 prior to the restriction. A short list of critical minerals in this study may be monitored although the current risk is low. The Spr of critical minerals provided an indicator in determining the levels and sources of potential supply risk as well as informing mitigation strategies in the years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Moon, Ji Won & Xun, Sean Y. & Chung, Jaewon & Textoris, Steven D., 2025. "Assessment of critical minerals supply chain for the United States in perspective of trade restriction by foreign countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:110:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725002685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105726
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420725002685
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105726?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuzhou Shen & Ruthann Moomy & Roderick G. Eggert, 2020. "China’s public policies toward rare earths, 1975–2018," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 127-151, July.
    2. Gulley, Andrew L. & McCullough, Erin A. & Shedd, Kim B., 2019. "China's domestic and foreign influence in the global cobalt supply chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 317-323.
    3. Elisa Alonso & David G. Pineault & Joseph Gambogi & Nedal T. Nassar, 2023. "Mapping first to final uses for rare earth elements, globally and in the United States," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(1), pages 312-322, February.
    4. Yu, Shiwei & Duan, Haoran & Cheng, Jinhua, 2021. "An evaluation of the supply risk for China's strategic metallic mineral resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Erin McCullough & Nedal T. Nassar, 2017. "Assessment of critical minerals: updated application of an early-warning screening methodology," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 257-272, October.
    6. Zhou, Na & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Xiangping & Zhu, Yongguang & Su, Hui & Xue, Shuangjiao, 2020. "Synthesized indicator for evaluating security of strategic minerals in China: A case study of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Schnebele, Emily & Jaiswal, Kishor & Luco, Nicolas & Nassar, Nedal T., 2019. "Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Leng, Zhihui & Sun, Han & Cheng, Jinhua & Wang, Hai & Yao, Zhen, 2021. "China's rare earth industry technological innovation structure and driving factors: A social network analysis based on patents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Yu, Donglei & Wenhui, Xiong & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Imran, Muhammad & Zaman, Khalid & Haffar, Mohamed, 2023. "Navigating the global mineral market: A study of resource wealth and the energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Han & Yuan, Ziyi & Wang, Xiaoxue & Chen, Lu & Zha, Zhiyun, 2025. "The security evaluation of nickel industrial and supply chains based on the NDEA window model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Yang, Jingluan & Chen, Wei, 2023. "Unravelling the landscape of global cobalt trade: Patterns, robustness, and supply chain security," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    3. Dou Shiquan & Xu Deyi, 2023. "The security of critical mineral supply chains," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 401-412, September.
    4. Xia, Qifan & Du, Debin & Cao, Wanpeng & Li, Xiya, 2023. "Who is the core? Reveal the heterogeneity of global rare earth trade structure from the perspective of industrial chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Guo, Qing & Wu, Yanqing, 2024. "Assessing China's rare earth supply security," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Zeng, Lanyan & Liu, Shi Qiang & Kozan, Erhan & Corry, Paul & Masoud, Mahmoud, 2021. "A comprehensive interdisciplinary review of mine supply chain management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Hao, Hongchang & Xing, Wanli & Wang, Anjian & Song, Hao & Han, Yawen & Zhao, Pei & Xie, Ziqi & Chen, Xuemei, 2022. "Multi-layer networks research on analyzing supply risk transmission of lithium industry chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Song, Yi & Bai, Wenbo & Zhang, Yijun, 2024. "Resilience assessment of trade network in copper industry chain and the risk resistance capacity of core countries: Based on complex network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Desire Runganga & Peta Ashworth & Bishal Bharadwaj, 2026. "Why we need more criticality experts from mineral-producing countries: analysis of the geopolitical provincialization of critical minerals assessments," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 39(1), pages 207-230, March.
    10. Li, Xinqiang & Wang, Cheng, 2024. "Clean Energy's influence on the mineral resource market in the ASEAN region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Cherepovitsyn, Alexey & Solovyova, Victoria & Dmitrieva, Diana, 2023. "New challenges for the sustainable development of the rare-earth metals sector in Russia: Transforming industrial policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Yang, Xiaoming & Islam, Md. Monirul & Mentel, Grzegorz & Ahmad, Ashfaq & Vasa, László, 2024. "Synergistic dynamics unveiled: Interplay between rare earth prices, clean energy innovations, and tech companies' market resilience amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Aziman, Eli Syafiqah & Ismail, Aznan Fazli & Rahmat, Muhammad Abdullah, 2023. "Balancing economic growth and environmental protection: A sustainable approach to Malaysia's rare-earth industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Camuamba, Elsa & Damásio, Bruno & Mendonça, Sandro, 2025. "Assessing critical mineral occurrence in battery technologies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Wang, Mengmeng & Liu, Kang & Dutta, Shanta & Alessi, Daniel S. & Rinklebe, Jörg & Ok, Yong Sik & Tsang, Daniel C.W., 2022. "Recycling of lithium iron phosphate batteries: Status, technologies, challenges, and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    16. Brown, Teresa, 2018. "Measurement of mineral supply diversity and its importance in assessing risk and criticality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 202-218.
    17. Zhe Chen & Zhongzhong Hu & Kai Li, 2021. "The spillover effect of trade policy along the value Chain: Evidence from China's rare earth‐related sectors," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(12), pages 3550-3582, December.
    18. Schnebele, Emily & Jaiswal, Kishor & Luco, Nicolas & Nassar, Nedal T., 2019. "Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Kang, Youngho & Lee, Yurim & Oh, Hayoung, 2025. "Navigating geopolitical risks: The impact of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute on global rare earth markets and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    20. Jannesar Niri, Anahita & Poelzer, Gregory A. & Zhang, Steven E. & Rosenkranz, Jan & Pettersson, Maria & Ghorbani, Yousef, 2024. "Sustainability challenges throughout the electric vehicle battery value chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:110:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725002685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.