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Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Wright, George
  • Rowe, Gene
  • Bolger, Fergus
  • Gammack, John

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Wright, George & Rowe, Gene & Bolger, Fergus & Gammack, John, 1994. "Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-25, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:57:y:1994:i:1:p:1-25
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher W. Karvetski & David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2020. "Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1040-1057, May.
    2. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
    3. Gary A. Ackerman & Jun Zhuang & Sitara Weerasuriya, 2017. "Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 342-371, February.
    4. Lau, Hon-Shiang & Lau, Amy Hing-Ling, 1997. "Some results on implementing a multi-item multi-constraint single-period inventory model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 121-128, January.
    5. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:4:p:369-381 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
    7. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1996. "The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 73-89, March.
    8. Wright, George & Lawrence, Michael J. & Collopy, Fred, 1996. "The role and validity of judgment in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, March.
    9. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
    10. Ozer, Muammer, 2008. "Improving the accuracy of expert predictions of the future success of new internet services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1085-1099, February.
    11. Barbara A. Mellers & Joshua D. Baker & Eva Chen & David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock, 2017. "How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(4), pages 369-381, July.
    12. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    13. Hon-Shiang Lau & Amy Hing-Ling Lau & Chrwan-Jyh Ho, 1998. "Improved Moment-Estimation Formulas Using More Than Three Subjective Fractiles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 346-351, March.
    14. Christopher W. Karvetski & Kenneth C. Olson & David R. Mandel & Charles R. Twardy, 2013. "Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 305-326, December.

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