Money, income and prices under fixed exchange rates: Evidence from causality tests and VARs
This paper investigates the impact of changes in monetary variables on the domestic and foreign sectors, the determinants of central bank policy, and the response to foreign monetary changes in Mexico and India. Multivariate Granger-causality tests, variance decompositions and impulse response functions are utilized to examine propositions regarding causal relationships among key economic variables. The results indicate that domestic monetary policy did not affect output in either country. A substantial balance of payments offset to changes in domestic credit was found in India, but not for Mexico. The Mexican central bank pursued an accommodative monetary policy, but did not sterilize. In India, the central bank sterilized, but did not respond to income or price fluctuations. Output responded in each country to changes in foreign money.
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