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Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings

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  • Dakin, Stephen
  • Armstrong, J. Scott

Abstract

A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of various selection tools and their claimed usage of these tools was then compared with the validities in a previously published meta-analysis. The experts claimed to use the predictors they believed to be most valid. However, their beliefs about validity were unrelated to empirically demonstrated validities (Spearman's rho = -0.06). Suggestions were made on the types of research that are needed to improve predictive ability in selection and on the ways in which practitioners can use existing research.
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Suggested Citation

  • Dakin, Stephen & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:5:y:1989:i:2:p:187-194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Slovic, Paul & Fleissner, Dan & Bauman, W Scott, 1972. "Analyzing the Use of Information in Investment Decision Making: A Methodological Proposal," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 283-301, April.
    2. Janz, Tom & Etherington, Lois, 1985. "Using forecasted net benefits in designing improved recruitment and selection systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 287-296.
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    1. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis : Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-318, June.
    2. Nikhil Kewal Krishna Mehta, 2021. "Synergistic Use of Bourdieu’s Theory of Practice, Queer Theories, and Employment Relation Theories: A Perspective for Sustainable Transgender Inclusion at the Workplace," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 9(1), pages 11-30, January.
    3. Jongchang Ahn & Yirang Jang & Yoonki Rhee, 2022. "A Factor Exploration and Empirical Study on the Influence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Employment: Focus on Korean Sample," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 69-84, January.
    5. Mauksch, Stefanie & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Gordon, Theodore J., 2020. "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Md. Abdul Hamid, 2023. "Role of Waqf Management in Employment Generation: An Implication of Econometric Model," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 29(1), pages 104-118.
    7. Jongchang Ahn & Soonki Jeong & Donghan Lee, 2023. "Research on the Items of Importance and Satisfaction for Employability in the Korean Information Communication Technology Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Philippe Jacquart & J. Scott Armstrong, 2013. "The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 580-589, December.
    9. Oliver Fabel & Razvan Pascalau, 2007. "Recruitment of Overeducated Personnel: Insider-Outsider Effects on Fair Employee Selection Practices," TWI Research Paper Series 18, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    10. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test : Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 322-323, June.
    11. Oliver Fabel & Razvan Pascalau, 2013. "Recruitment of Seemingly Overeducated Personnel: Insider--Outsider Effects on Fair Employee Selection Practices," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 57-82, February.

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