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Estimation of the parameters of a Markov-modulated loss process in insurance

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  • Guillou, Armelle
  • Loisel, Stéphane
  • Stupfler, Gilles

Abstract

We present a new model of loss processes in insurance. The process is a couple (N,L) where N is a univariate Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP) and L is a multivariate loss process whose behavior is driven by N. We prove the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of this model and present an EM algorithm to compute it in practice. The method is illustrated with simulations and real sets of insurance data.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillou, Armelle & Loisel, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2013. "Estimation of the parameters of a Markov-modulated loss process in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 388-404.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:53:y:2013:i:2:p:388-404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stéphane Loisel, 2004. "Ruin theory with K lines of business," Post-Print hal-00379417, HAL.
    2. Meier-Hellstern, K. S., 1987. "A fitting algorithm for Markov-modulated poisson processes having two arrival rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 370-377, June.
    3. Loisel, Stéphane & Milhaud, Xavier, 2011. "From deterministic to stochastic surrender risk models: Impact of correlation crises on economic capital," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 348-357, October.
    4. Cai, Jun & Tan, Ken Seng, 2007. "Optimal Retention for a Stop-loss Reinsurance Under the VaR and CTE Risk Measures," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 93-112, May.
    5. Leroux, Brian G., 1992. "Maximum-likelihood estimation for hidden Markov models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 127-143, February.
    6. Stéphane Loisel, 2011. "Surrender risk and correlation crises," Post-Print hal-00671919, HAL.
    7. Xavier Milhaud & Stéphane Loisel & Véronique Maume-Deschamps, 2011. "Surrender triggers in life insurance: what main features affect the surrender behavior in a classical economic context?," Post-Print hal-00450003, HAL.
    8. Lindskog, Filip & McNeil, Alexander J., 2003. "Common Poisson Shock Models: Applications to Insurance and Credit Risk Modelling," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 209-238, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lesław Gajek & Marcin Rudź, 2020. "Finite-Horizon Ruin Probabilities in a Risk-Switching Sparre Andersen Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1493-1506, December.
    2. F. Baltazar-Larios & Luz Judith R. Esparza, 2022. "Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov-Modulated Diffusion Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 571-593, June.
    3. Gajek, Lesław & Rudź, Marcin, 2018. "Banach Contraction Principle and ruin probabilities in regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 45-53.
    4. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wong, Bernard & Xian, Alan, 2021. "Modelling and understanding count processes through a Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 177-195.
    5. Lesław Gajek & Marcin Rudź, 2020. "Finite-horizon general insolvency risk measures in a regime-switching Sparre Andersen model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1507-1528, December.
    6. Benjamin Avanzi & Greg Taylor & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2020. "Modelling and understanding count processes through a Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process framework," Papers 2003.13888, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    7. Lesław Gajek & Marcin Rudź, 2018. "Risk-switching insolvency models," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 51, pages 129-146.
    8. Gajek, Lesław & Rudź, Marcin, 2017. "A generalization of Gerber’s inequality for ruin probabilities in risk-switching models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 236-240.

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