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Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

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  • Cascos, Ignacio
  • Molchanov, Ilya

Abstract

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Cascos, Ignacio & Molchanov, Ilya, 2013. "Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 599-605.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:52:y:2013:i:3:p:599-605
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.03.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaas, Rob & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Nelsen, Roger B., 2009. "Worst VaR scenarios with given marginals and measures of association," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 146-158, April.
    2. Acerbi, Carlo, 2002. "Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1505-1518, July.
    3. Michael Monticino, 2001. "How to Construct a Random Probability Measure," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 69(1), pages 153-167, April.
    4. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    5. Goovaerts, Marc J. & Kaas, Rob & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2010. "Decision principles derived from risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 294-302, December.
    6. Paul Embrechts & Giovanni Puccetti, 2006. "Bounds for Functions of Dependent Risks," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 341-352, September.
    7. Embrechts, Paul & Hoing, Andrea & Puccetti, Giovanni, 2005. "Worst VaR scenarios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 115-134, August.
    8. Goovaerts, Marc J. & Kaas, Rob & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2011. "Worst case risk measurement: Back to the future?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 380-392.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khreshna Syuhada & Venansius Tjahjono & Arief Hakim, 2023. "Dependent Metaverse Risk Forecasts with Heteroskedastic Models and Ensemble Learning," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IM01; IE43; Risk measure; Random probability distribution; Simulation; Lorenz curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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