IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v122y2025icp1-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust indifference valuation of catastrophe bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Haibo

Abstract

We study utility indifference pricing of a catastrophe (CAT) bond subject to CAT intensity and severity uncertainty for an uncertainty averse representative agent. Assuming the agent has an exponential utility function, we derive her robust ask and bid indifference prices of the CAT bond that are robust to adverse uncertain scenarios. We show that the agent's bid-ask spread increases with both her risk aversion and uncertainty aversion. Moreover, the CAT intensity and CAT severity distribution in the worst-case scenario depend on her trading position.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Haibo, 2025. "Robust indifference valuation of catastrophe bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:122:y:2025:i:c:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.01.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668725000198
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.01.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nowak, Piotr & Romaniuk, Maciej, 2013. "Pricing and simulations of catastrophe bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 18-28.
    2. Pascal J. Maenhout, 2004. "Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 951-983.
    3. Virginia R. Young, 2004. "Pricing In An Incomplete Market With An Affine Term Structure," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 359-381, July.
    4. Liu, Haibo & Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2021. "Indifference pricing of insurance-linked securities in a multi-period model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 793-805.
    5. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    6. Christian Flor & Linda Larsen, 2014. "Robust portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 243-265, May.
    7. Matteo Coronese & Francesco Lamperti & Klaus Keller & Francesca Chiaromonte & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(43), pages 21450-21455, October.
    8. Beer, Simone & Braun, Alexander, 2022. "Market-consistent valuation of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Xing Jin & Dan Luo & Xudong Zeng, 2021. "Tail Risk and Robust Portfolio Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 3254-3275, May.
    10. Sukono & Hafizan Juahir & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Igif Gimin Prihanto, 2022. "Application of Compound Poisson Process in Pricing Catastrophe Bonds: A Systematic Literature Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-19, July.
    11. Gerber, Hans U., 1974. "On Additive Premium Calculation Principles," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 215-222, March.
    12. Egami, Masahiko & Young, Virginia R., 2008. "Indifference prices of structured catastrophe (CAT) bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 771-778, April.
    13. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
    14. Jarrow, Robert A., 2010. "A simple robust model for Cat bond valuation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 72-79, June.
    15. Ma, Zong-Gang & Ma, Chao-Qun, 2013. "Pricing catastrophe risk bonds: A mixed approximation method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-254.
    16. Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2019. "Cat Bond Pricing Under A Product Probability Measure With Pot Risk Characterization," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 457-490, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sukono & Hafizan Juahir & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Igif Gimin Prihanto, 2022. "Application of Compound Poisson Process in Pricing Catastrophe Bonds: A Systematic Literature Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Shao, Jia & Papaioannou, Apostolos D. & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2017. "Pricing and simulating catastrophe risk bonds in a Markov-dependent environment," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 309(C), pages 68-84.
    3. Ben Ammar, Semir & Braun, Alexander & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Alternative Risk Transfer and Insurance-Linked Securities: Trends, Challenges and New Market Opportunities," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 56, number 56.
    4. Garces, Len Patrick Dominic M. & Shen, Yang, 2025. "Robust optimal investment and consumption strategies with portfolio constraints and stochastic environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 322(2), pages 693-712.
    5. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Research Paper Series 379, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Krzysztof Burnecki & Mario Nicoló Giuricich, 2017. "Stable Weak Approximation at Work in Index-Linked Catastrophe Bond Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Dixon Domfeh & Arpita Chatterjee & Matthew Dixon, 2022. "A Unified Bayesian Framework for Pricing Catastrophe Bond Derivatives," Papers 2205.04520, arXiv.org.
    8. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Van Son Lai & Anne-Sophie Charest, 2017. "CAT Bond Spreads Via HARA Utility and Nonparametric Tests," Working Papers 2017-002, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Sukono & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Hafizan Juahir & Igif Gimin Prihanto & Nurfadhlina Binti Abdul Halim, 2022. "Modeling Multiple-Event Catastrophe Bond Prices Involving the Trigger Event Correlation, Interest, and Inflation Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Rubtsov, Alexey, 2016. "Model misspecification and pricing of illiquid claims," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 242-249.
    11. Zeng, Yan & Li, Danping & Chen, Zheng & Yang, Zhou, 2018. "Ambiguity aversion and optimal derivative-based pension investment with stochastic income and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 70-103.
    12. Peng, Xingchun & Chen, Fenge & Wang, Wenyuan, 2021. "Robust optimal investment and reinsurance for an insurer with inside information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 15-30.
    13. Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu & Rose Irnawaty Ibrahim, 2024. "Earthquake Bond Pricing Model Involving the Inconstant Event Intensity and Maximum Strength," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Wulan Anggraeni & Sudradjat Supian & Sukono & Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim, 2023. "Catastrophe Bond Diversification Strategy Using Probabilistic–Possibilistic Bijective Transformation and Credibility Measures in Fuzzy Environment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-30, August.
    15. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Giuricich, Mario Nicoló & Palmowski, Zbigniew, 2019. "Valuation of contingent convertible catastrophe bonds — The case for equity conversion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 238-254.
    16. Wujun Lv & Tao Pang & Xiaobao Xia & Jingzhou Yan, 2023. "Dynamic portfolio choice with uncertain rare-events risk in stock and cryptocurrency markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, December.
    17. Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces & Yang Shen, 2024. "Robust optimal investment and consumption strategies with portfolio constraints and stochastic environment," Papers 2407.02831, arXiv.org.
    18. Hong Li & Jianxi Su, 2024. "Mitigating wildfire losses via insurance‐linked securities: Modeling and risk management perspectives," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 91(2), pages 383-414, June.
    19. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2018. "Dynamic derivative strategies with stochastic interest rates and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-71.
    20. Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu & Rose Irnawaty Ibrahim, 2023. "How to Price Catastrophe Bonds for Sustainable Earthquake Funding? A Systematic Review of the Pricing Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:122:y:2025:i:c:p:1-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.