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Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Coronese
  • Francesco Lamperti
  • Klaus Keller
  • Francesca Chiaromonte
  • Andrea Roventini

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Does this translate into increased economic damages? To date, empirical assessments of damage trends have been inconclusive. Our study demonstrates a temporal increase in extreme damages, after controlling for a number of factors. We analyze event-level data using quantile regressions to capture patterns in the damage distribution (not just its mean) and find strong evidence of progressive rightward skewing and tail-fattening over time. While the effect of time on averages is hard to detect, effects on extreme damages are large, statistically significant, and growing with increasing percentiles. Our results are consistent with an upwardly curved, convex damage function, which is commonly assumed in climate-economics models. They are also robust to different specifications of control variables and time range considered and indicate that the risk of extreme damages has increased more in temperate areas than in tropical ones. We use simulations to show that underreporting bias in the data does not weaken our inferences; in fact, it may make them overly conservative.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Coronese & Francesco Lamperti & Klaus Keller & Francesca Chiaromonte & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters," Post-Print hal-04096149, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04096149
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1907826116
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04096149
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Taberna & Tatiana Filatova & Andrea Roventini & Francesco Lamperti, 2021. "Coping with increasing tides: technological change, agglomeration dynamics and climate hazards in an agent-based evolutionary model," LEM Papers Series 2021/44, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Zsombor Z. M'eder & Carsten K. W. de Dreu & Jorg Gross, 2022. "Equilibria of Attacker-Defender Games," Papers 2202.10072, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    3. Taberna, Alessandro & Filatova, Tatiana & Roventini, Andrea & Lamperti, Francesco, 2022. "Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Austmann, Leonhard M. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2021. "Does environmental awareness fuel the electric vehicle market? A Twitter keyword analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Carolyn Kousky & Helen Wiley & Len Shabman, 2021. "Can Parametric Microinsurance Improve the Financial Resilience of Low-Income Households in the United States?," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 301-327, October.
    7. Irene Monasterolo & Monica Billio & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "The importance of compound risk in the nexus of COVID-19, climate change and finance," Working Papers 2020:15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    8. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2020. "The Green New Deal: Historical Foundations, Economic Fundamentals and Implementation Strategies," Proceedings of the 18th International RAIS Conference, August 17-18, 2020 006jpa, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    9. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Tiziano Distefano & Simone D’Alessandro, 2021. "A new two-nested-game approach: linking micro- and macro-scales in international environmental agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 493-516, September.
    11. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    12. Chrysostomos Psaroudakis & Gavriil Xanthopoulos & Dimitris Stavrakoudis & Antonios Barnias & Vassiliki Varela & Ilias Gkotsis & Anna Karvouniari & Spyridon Agorgianitis & Ioannis Chasiotis & Diamando , 2021. "Development of an Early Warning and Incident Response System for the Protection of Visitors from Natural Hazards in Important Outdoor Sites in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-29, May.
    13. Knoke, Thomas & Gosling, Elizabeth & Thom, Dominik & Chreptun, Claudia & Rammig, Anja & Seidl, Rupert, 2021. "Economic losses from natural disturbances in Norway spruce forests – A quantification using Monte-Carlo simulations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Shaopan Li & Yan Wang & Hong Huang & Lida Huang & Yang Chen, 2023. "Study on typhoon disaster assessment by mining data from social media based on artificial neural network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2069-2089, March.
    15. Friedt, Felix L. & Toner-Rodgers, Aidan, 2022. "Natural disasters, intra-national FDI spillovers, and economic divergence: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Müller, Gernot & Dietrich, Alexander & Schoenle, Raphael, 2021. "The Expectations Channel of Climate Change:Implications for Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242446, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Franzke, Christian L.E., 2021. "Towards the development of economic damage functions for weather and climate extremes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    18. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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