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Development and application of a statistical methodology to evaluate the predictive accuracy of building energy baseline models

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  • Granderson, Jessica
  • Price, Phillip N.

Abstract

This paper documents the development and application of a general statistical methodology to assess the accuracy of baseline energy models, focusing on its application to M&V (measurement and verification) of whole-building energy savings. The methodology complements the principles addressed in resources such as ASHRAE Guideline 14 and the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol. It requires fitting a baseline model to data from a “training period” and using the model to predict total electricity consumption during a subsequent “prediction period.”

Suggested Citation

  • Granderson, Jessica & Price, Phillip N., 2014. "Development and application of a statistical methodology to evaluate the predictive accuracy of building energy baseline models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 981-990.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:981-990
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.01.074
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    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Hongxiang & Baltazar, Juan-Carlos & Claridge, David E., 2021. "Review of developments in whole-building statistical energy consumption models for commercial buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Suwon Song & Chun Gun Park, 2019. "Alternative Algorithm for Automatically Driving Best-Fit Building Energy Baseline Models Using a Data—Driven Grid Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Kapp, Sean & Choi, Jun-Ki & Hong, Taehoon, 2023. "Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Effenberger, Frank & Hilbert, Andreas, 2016. "Towards an energy information system architecture description for industrial manufacturers: Decomposition & allocation view," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 599-605.
    5. Liang, Xin & Hong, Tianzhen & Shen, Geoffrey Qiping, 2016. "Improving the accuracy of energy baseline models for commercial buildings with occupancy data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 247-260.
    6. Granderson, Jessica & Touzani, Samir & Custodio, Claudine & Sohn, Michael D. & Jump, David & Fernandes, Samuel, 2016. "Accuracy of automated measurement and verification (M&V) techniques for energy savings in commercial buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 296-308.
    7. Ziras, Charalampos & Heinrich, Carsten & Pertl, Michael & Bindner, Henrik W., 2019. "Experimental flexibility identification of aggregated residential thermal loads using behind-the-meter data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1407-1421.
    8. Ye, Xianming & Xia, Xiaohua, 2016. "Optimal metering plan for measurement and verification on a lighting case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 580-592.
    9. Chung, Mo & Park, Hwa-Choon, 2015. "Comparison of building energy demand for hotels, hospitals, and offices in Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 383-393.
    10. Ana M. Marina Domingo & Javier M. Rey-Hernández & Julio F. San José Alonso & Raquel Mata Crespo & Francisco J. Rey Martínez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Analysis Carried Out by Installing District Heating on a University Campus. A Case Study in Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    11. Alain Poulin & Marie-Andrée Leduc & Michaël Fournier, 2022. "Statistical Analysis of Baseline Load Models for Residential Buildings in the Context of Winter Demand Response," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-14, June.
    12. Olinga, Zadok & Xia, Xiaohua & Ye, Xianming, 2017. "A cost-effective approach to handle measurement and verification uncertainties of energy savings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1600-1609.

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