A GCN-based adaptive generative adversarial network model for short-term wind speed scenario prediction

Wind prediction is of great significance for wind energy utilization due to the stochastic nature of wind. To effectively facilitate various downstream decision-making tasks such as wind turbine control, predictive wind Scenario Generation (SG), which is capable of providing a set of deterministic instantiated wind prediction results, plays a critical role. In this paper, a novel Graph neural networks-based Adaptive Predictive Generative Adversarial Network (GAPGAN) model is proposed for accurate prediction of short-term future scenarios of a wind field. In GAPGAN, the original multivariate time series data are first reconstructed into the form of a graph, and spatiotemporal features are then extracted using Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs). Next, a predictive generative adversarial network (PGAN) framework is proposed, which could generate different outputs corresponding to given historical observations as conditions. Finally, an adaptive PGAN training mechanism is introduced to stabilize the training process, and the best SG model is selected based on the proposed comprehensive evaluation system. Based on wind speed data collected from 11 wind turbines, computational experiments validate that the GAPGAN outperforms five benchmarking models in terms of point prediction accuracy, shape similarity, uncertainty prediction quality, and prediction scenario diversity.