IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v201y2020ics0360544220306381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accurate forecasting of building energy consumption via a novel ensembled deep learning method considering the cyclic feature

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Guiqing
  • Tian, Chenlu
  • Li, Chengdong
  • Zhang, Jun Jason
  • Zuo, Wangda

Abstract

Short-term forecasting of building energy consumption (BEC) is significant for building energy reduction and real-time demand response. In this study, we propose a new method to realize half-hourly BEC prediction. In this new method, to fully utilize the existing data features and to further promote the forecasting performance, we divide the BEC data into the stable (cyclic) and stochastic components, and propose a novel hybrid model to model the stable and stochastic components respectively. The cyclic feature (CF) is extracted via the spectrum analysis, while the stochastic component is approximated by a novel Deep Belief Network (DBN) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) based ensembled model (DEEM). This novel hybrid model is named DEEM + CF. Furthermore, two real-world BEC experiments are performed to verify the proposed method. Also, to display the superiorities of the proposed DEEM + CF, this model is compared with the DBN, DBN + CF, ELM, ELM + CF, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and SVR + CF. Experimental results indicate that the CF has a great influence on the promotion of forecasting accuracy for approximately 20%, and DEEM + CF performance is the best among the comparative models, with at least 3%, 6%, 10% better accuracy than the DBN + CF, ELM + CF and SVR + CF respectively under the criteria of MAE.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Guiqing & Tian, Chenlu & Li, Chengdong & Zhang, Jun Jason & Zuo, Wangda, 2020. "Accurate forecasting of building energy consumption via a novel ensembled deep learning method considering the cyclic feature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:201:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220306381
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117531
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220306381
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117531?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2020. "Machine learning-based optimal design of a phase change material integrated renewable system with on-site PV, radiative cooling and hybrid ventilations—study of modelling and application in five clima," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Zhao, Yang & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "Deep learning-based feature engineering methods for improved building energy prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 35-45.
    3. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Jianqiang Yi & Yisheng Lv & Guiqing Zhang, 2018. "Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    5. Fan, Cheng & Huang, Gongsheng & Sun, Yongjun, 2018. "A collaborative control optimization of grid-connected net zero energy buildings for performance improvements at building group level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 536-549.
    6. Huang, Pei & Sun, Yongjun, 2019. "A collaborative demand control of nearly zero energy buildings in response to dynamic pricing for performance improvements at cluster level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 911-921.
    7. Fu, Guoyin, 2018. "Deep belief network based ensemble approach for cooling load forecasting of air-conditioning system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 269-282.
    8. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    9. Xu, Yuan & Zhang, Mingqing & Ye, Liangliang & Zhu, Qunxiong & Geng, Zhiqiang & He, Yan-Lin & Han, Yongming, 2018. "A novel prediction intervals method integrating an error & self-feedback extreme learning machine with particle swarm optimization for energy consumption robust prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 137-146.
    10. Alizamir, Meysam & Kim, Sungwon & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad, 2020. "A comparative study of several machine learning based non-linear regression methods in estimating solar radiation: Case studies of the USA and Turkey regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    11. John Boland, 2020. "Characterising Seasonality of Solar Radiation and Solar Farm Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Ashouri, Milad & Fung, Benjamin C.M. & Haghighat, Fariborz & Yoshino, Hiroshi, 2020. "Systematic approach to provide building occupants with feedback to reduce energy consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Chambers, Jonathan & Hollmuller, Pierre & Bouvard, Olivia & Schueler, Andreas & Scartezzini, Jean-Louis & Azar, Elie & Patel, Martin K., 2019. "Evaluating the electricity saving potential of electrochromic glazing for cooling and lighting at the scale of the Swiss non-residential national building stock using a Monte Carlo model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 136-147.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Mir Sayed Shah Danish, 2023. "AI and Expert Insights for Sustainable Energy Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    5. Kotarela, Faidra & Kyritsis, Anastasios & Agathokleous, Rafaela & Papanikolaou, Nick, 2023. "On the exploitation of dynamic simulations for the design of buildings energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    6. Haizhou Fang & Hongwei Tan & Ningfang Dai & Zhaohui Liu & Risto Kosonen, 2023. "Hourly Building Energy Consumption Prediction Using a Training Sample Selection Method Based on Key Feature Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    8. Ren, Fei & Tian, Chenlu & Zhang, Guiqing & Li, Chengdong & Zhai, Yuan, 2022. "A hybrid method for power demand prediction of electric vehicles based on SARIMA and deep learning with integration of periodic features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    9. Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Seman, Laio Oriel & Aquino, Luiza Scapinello & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2023. "Wavelet-Seq2Seq-LSTM with attention for time series forecasting of level of dams in hydroelectric power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    10. Yue, Bao & Wei, Ziqing & Zheng, Chunyuan & Ding, Yunxiao & Li, Bin & Li, Dongdong & Liang, Xingang & Zhai, Xiaoqiang, 2023. "Power consumption prediction of variable refrigerant flow system through data-physics hybrid approach: An online prediction test in office building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    4. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. Mohsen Ahmadi & Mahsa Soofiabadi & Maryam Nikpour & Hossein Naderi & Lazim Abdullah & Behdad Arandian, 2022. "Developing a Deep Neural Network with Fuzzy Wavelets and Integrating an Inline PSO to Predict Energy Consumption Patterns in Urban Buildings," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Chun-Wei Chen, 2023. "A Feasibility Discussion: Is ML Suitable for Predicting Sustainable Patterns in Consumer Product Preferences?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Li, Guannan & Wu, Yubei & Yoon, Sungmin & Fang, Xi, 2024. "Comprehensive transferability assessment of short-term cross-building-energy prediction using deep adversarial network transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    9. Natei Ermias Benti & Mesfin Diro Chaka & Addisu Gezahegn Semie, 2023. "Forecasting Renewable Energy Generation with Machine Learning and Deep Learning: Current Advances and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-33, April.
    10. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong & Huang, Chao, 2021. "Methodological framework for short-and medium-term energy, solar and wind power forecasting with stochastic-based machine learning approach to monetary and energy policy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Fateme Dinmohammadi & Yuxuan Han & Mahmood Shafiee, 2023. "Predicting Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Satre-Meloy, Aven & Diakonova, Marina & Grünewald, Philipp, 2020. "Cluster analysis and prediction of residential peak demand profiles using occupant activity data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    13. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    14. Sunil Kumar Mohapatra & Sushruta Mishra & Hrudaya Kumar Tripathy & Akash Kumar Bhoi & Paolo Barsocchi, 2021. "A Pragmatic Investigation of Energy Consumption and Utilization Models in the Urban Sector Using Predictive Intelligence Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-28, June.
    15. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    16. Gao, Lei & Liu, Tianyuan & Cao, Tao & Hwang, Yunho & Radermacher, Reinhard, 2021. "Comparing deep learning models for multi energy vectors prediction on multiple types of building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    17. Maltais, Louis-Gabriel & Gosselin, Louis, 2022. "Forecasting of short-term lighting and plug load electricity consumption in single residential units: Development and assessment of data-driven models for different horizons," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    18. Xu, Yuanjin & Li, Fei & Asgari, Armin, 2022. "Prediction and optimization of heating and cooling loads in a residential building based on multi-layer perceptron neural network and different optimization algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    19. Huang, Pei & Lovati, Marco & Zhang, Xingxing & Bales, Chris, 2020. "A coordinated control to improve performance for a building cluster with energy storage, electric vehicles, and energy sharing considered," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    20. Huang, Pei & Fan, Cheng & Zhang, Xingxing & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A hierarchical coordinated demand response control for buildings with improved performances at building group," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 684-694.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:201:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220306381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.