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Accurate forecasting of building energy consumption via a novel ensembled deep learning method considering the cyclic feature

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  • Zhang, Guiqing
  • Tian, Chenlu
  • Li, Chengdong
  • Zhang, Jun Jason
  • Zuo, Wangda

Abstract

Short-term forecasting of building energy consumption (BEC) is significant for building energy reduction and real-time demand response. In this study, we propose a new method to realize half-hourly BEC prediction. In this new method, to fully utilize the existing data features and to further promote the forecasting performance, we divide the BEC data into the stable (cyclic) and stochastic components, and propose a novel hybrid model to model the stable and stochastic components respectively. The cyclic feature (CF) is extracted via the spectrum analysis, while the stochastic component is approximated by a novel Deep Belief Network (DBN) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) based ensembled model (DEEM). This novel hybrid model is named DEEM + CF. Furthermore, two real-world BEC experiments are performed to verify the proposed method. Also, to display the superiorities of the proposed DEEM + CF, this model is compared with the DBN, DBN + CF, ELM, ELM + CF, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and SVR + CF. Experimental results indicate that the CF has a great influence on the promotion of forecasting accuracy for approximately 20%, and DEEM + CF performance is the best among the comparative models, with at least 3%, 6%, 10% better accuracy than the DBN + CF, ELM + CF and SVR + CF respectively under the criteria of MAE.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Guiqing & Tian, Chenlu & Li, Chengdong & Zhang, Jun Jason & Zuo, Wangda, 2020. "Accurate forecasting of building energy consumption via a novel ensembled deep learning method considering the cyclic feature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:201:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220306381
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117531
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    7. Kotarela, Faidra & Kyritsis, Anastasios & Agathokleous, Rafaela & Papanikolaou, Nick, 2023. "On the exploitation of dynamic simulations for the design of buildings energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    8. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    10. Yue, Bao & Wei, Ziqing & Zheng, Chunyuan & Ding, Yunxiao & Li, Bin & Li, Dongdong & Liang, Xingang & Zhai, Xiaoqiang, 2023. "Power consumption prediction of variable refrigerant flow system through data-physics hybrid approach: An online prediction test in office building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).

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