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Population aging and China's energy transition: Industrial reallocation and upgrading

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Jieyun
  • Yu, Xiaoyuan
  • Hao, Yun
  • Hong, Weixin
  • Gong, Zeyu

Abstract

Population aging is associated with slower improvement in the energy consumption transition (TRE, measured as the clean-energy share of final consumption), operating mainly through weaker industrial reallocation efficiency (IRE) and more limited, regionally heterogeneous industrial upgrading (ISU). To investigate these dynamics, we apply a spatial econometric panel approach to provincial-level data in China from 2005 to 2021. Our analysis demonstrates that demographic shifts hinder the energy transition by amplifying aggregate reallocation frictions and widening the mismatch between sectoral output and employment shares. Furthermore, population aging in neighboring regions creates significant spatial spillovers that impede the local clean-energy transition. Policymakers should therefore integrate demographic trends into long-term energy planning. Overcoming these constraints requires targeted support for labor mobility and technological upgrading, alongside robust cross-regional policy coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Jieyun & Yu, Xiaoyuan & Hao, Yun & Hong, Weixin & Gong, Zeyu, 2026. "Population aging and China's energy transition: Industrial reallocation and upgrading," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:159:y:2026:i:c:s0140988326002598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109380
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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