A provisioning problem with stochastic payments
We consider the problem of determining the minimal requirement one must establish in order to meet a series of future random payments. It is shown in a very general setting that this problem can be recast as a chance constrained model and how the technique of Sample Average Approximation can be employed to find solutions. We also use comonotonic theory to analyze analytical approximations in a restricted Gaussian setting. Our numerical illustrations demonstrate that the Sample Average Approximation is a viable and efficient way to solve the stated problem generally and outperforms the analytical approximations. In passing we present a result that is related to Stein’s famous lemma (Stein, 1981) and is of interest in itself.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper & G. H. Symonds, 1958. "Cost Horizons and Certainty Equivalents: An Approach to Stochastic Programming of Heating Oil," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 235-263, April.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1991.
"Option Pricing With V. G. Martingale Components,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(4), pages 39-55.
- Vanduffel, S. & Dhaene, J. & Goovaerts, M. & Kaas, R., 2003. "The hurdle-race problem," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-413, October.
- Abdelaziz, Fouad Ben & Aouni, Belaid & Fayedh, Rimeh El, 2007. "Multi-objective stochastic programming for portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1811-1823, March.
- Kaas, Rob & Dhaene, Jan & Goovaerts, Marc J., 2000. "Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 151-168, October.
- Dupacova, Jitka & Gaivoronski, Alexei & Kos, Zdenek & Szantai, Tamas, 1991. "Stochastic programming in water management: A case study and a comparison of solution techniques," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 28-44, May.
- Cesari, Riccardo & Cremonini, David, 2003. "Benchmarking, portfolio insurance and technical analysis: a Monte Carlo comparison of dynamic strategies of asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 987-1011, April.
- Kampas, Athanasios & White, Ben, 2003. "Probabilistic programming for nitrate pollution control: Comparing different probabilistic constraint approximations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 217-228, May.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- J. Dhaene & S. Vanduffel & M. J. Goovaerts & R. Kaas & D. Vyncke, 2005. "Comonotonic Approximations for Optimal Portfolio Selection Problems," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 253-300.
- Vanduffel, Steven & Shang, Zhaoning & Henrard, Luc & Dhaene, Jan & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2008. "Analytic bounds and approximations for annuities and Asian options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1109-1117, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:221:y:2012:i:2:p:445-453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.