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Jackknife model averaging

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  • Hansen, Bruce E.
  • Racine, Jeffrey S.

Abstract

We consider the problem of obtaining appropriate weights for averaging M approximate (misspecified) models for improved estimation of an unknown conditional mean in the face of non-nested model uncertainty in heteroskedastic error settings. We propose a “jackknife model averaging” (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a cross-validation criterion. This criterion is quadratic in the weights, so computation is a simple application of quadratic programming. We show that our estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible expected squared error. Monte Carlo simulations and an illustrative application show that JMA can achieve significant efficiency gains over existing model selection and averaging methods in the presence of heteroskedasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Bruce E. & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2012. "Jackknife model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 38-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:167:y:2012:i:1:p:38-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.06.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
    2. Racine, Jeff, 1997. "Feasible Cross-Validatory Model Selection for General Stationary Processes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 169-179, March-Apr.
    3. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1991. "Asymptotic optimality of generalized CL, cross-validation, and generalized cross-validation in regression with heteroskedastic errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 359-377, February.
    4. Yang Y., 2001. "Adaptive Regression by Mixing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 574-588, June.
    5. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2010. "Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 277-283, June.
    6. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
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