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Fungal pathogen transmission dynamics in North American salamanders: Mathematical insights for disease management

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  • Chowdhury, Mohammad Mihrab
  • Gray, Matthew J.
  • Carter, Edward Davis
  • Woodhams, Douglas C.
  • McCartney, Julia A.
  • Surles, James G.
  • Nelms, K McKensie
  • Gan, Hao
  • Peace, Angela

Abstract

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in amphibians, particularly those with multiple transmission routes, are complex and can rapidly evolve into epizootics. Here, we consider the eastern newt (Notophthalmus viridescens) and the emerging fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) as a host for amphibians and a pathogen for infectious diseases, respectively. The susceptible population can become infected by Bsal in two ways: direct contact with infected newts or by environmental zoospores. To properly depict the impact of Bsal on amphibians, we categorized the host newt population into distinct life stages: larvae, eft, and adult. Each life stage represents unique traits and habitat preferences. Considering these, we employed an interdisciplinary approach by combining mathematical modeling and laboratory experiments to explore the deterministic transmission dynamics of Bsal in amphibians. We developed a compartmental model employing a system of ordinary differential equations comprising life cycle and disease dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Chowdhury, Mohammad Mihrab & Gray, Matthew J. & Carter, Edward Davis & Woodhams, Douglas C. & McCartney, Julia A. & Surles, James G. & Nelms, K McKensie & Gan, Hao & Peace, Angela, 2025. "Fungal pathogen transmission dynamics in North American salamanders: Mathematical insights for disease management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:501:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025000110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Shiliang & Liu, Xiang & He, Qiang & Zhou, Shurong, 2022. "Higher-order interactions on disease transmission can reverse the dilution effect or weaken the amplification effect to unimodal pattern," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 474(C).
    2. Matthew J. Gray & Edward Davis Carter & Jonah Piovia-Scott & J. Patrick W. Cusaac & Anna C. Peterson & Ross D. Whetstone & Andreas Hertz & Aura Y. Muniz-Torres & Molly C. Bletz & Douglas C. Woodhams &, 2023. "Broad host susceptibility of North American amphibian species to Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans suggests high invasion potential and biodiversity risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Gwij Stegen & Frank Pasmans & Benedikt R. Schmidt & Lieze O. Rouffaer & Sarah Van Praet & Michael Schaub & Stefano Canessa & Arnaud Laudelout & Thierry Kinet & Connie Adriaensen & Freddy Haesebrouck &, 2017. "Drivers of salamander extirpation mediated by Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans," Nature, Nature, vol. 544(7650), pages 353-356, April.
    4. Chen, Ming & Gao, Honghui & Zhang, Jimin, 2024. "Dynamic modeling of lytic virus transmission among phytoplankton driven by nitrogen and phosphorus," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 496(C).
    5. Peace, Angela & O’Regan, Suzanne M. & Spatz, Jennifer A. & Reilly, Patrick N. & Hill, Rachel D. & Carter, E. Davis & Wilkes, Rebecca P. & Waltzek, Thomas B. & Miller, Debra L. & Gray, Matthew J., 2019. "A highly invasive chimeric ranavirus can decimate tadpole populations rapidly through multiple transmission pathways," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 410(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Anthony W. Waddle & Simon Clulow & Amy Aquilina & Erin L. Sauer & Shannon W. Kaiser & Claire Miller & Jennifer A. Flegg & Patricia T. Campbell & Harrison Gallagher & Ivana Dimovski & Yorick Lambreghts, 2024. "Hotspot shelters stimulate frog resistance to chytridiomycosis," Nature, Nature, vol. 631(8020), pages 344-349, July.
    7. Moira Kelly & Frank Pasmans & Jose F. Muñoz & Terrance P. Shea & Salvador Carranza & Christina A. Cuomo & An Martel, 2021. "Diversity, multifaceted evolution, and facultative saprotrophism in the European Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
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