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Development of a two-dimensional eutrophication model in an urban lake (China) and the application of uncertainty analysis

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  • Li-kun, Yang
  • Sen, Peng
  • Xin-hua, Zhao
  • Xia, Li

Abstract

Urban lakes in China, particularly those with relatively small surface areas and closed watersheds, have suffered from severe eutrophication over the past few years. To investigate the causes and to examine the underlying mechanisms, a two-dimensional uncertainty eutrophication model was developed. The model reflected the interactions between nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton. Moreover, it can be utilized to describe seasonal and regional water quality changes. The two-dimensional hydraulic model was set up using Navier-Stokes equations and was calculated by applying the finite volume method. The Bayesian method was employed to calibrate the model parameters and obtain the parameter posterior distribution. The two-dimensional hydraulic information and the parameter posterior distribution were utilized to calculate a two-dimensional uncertainty eutrophication model, for which the 95% confidence interval (uncertainty bounds which can provide the trend and range for water quality changes) and mean value of every water quality index (nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, Chl. a and dissolved oxygen) were simulated. Comparisons between the model simulations and the field data indicated that the models were able to calculate the hydrodynamic information and the eutrophication dynamics with reasonable accuracy (all the relative errors lower than 11%). The simulated concentrations of water quality indexes (nitrate, ammonia, phosphate and Chl. a) in the vicinity of the lake were higher than that in the middle of the lake during the simulation period, indicating that the nutrient load of the rainwater runoff had significant impacts on algal blooms and water quality. Therefore, the urban lake was vulnerable to the influence of rainwater runoff. To reduce the eutrophication risk, rainwater runoff needs to be controlled. Two-dimensional uncertainty eutrophication models, such as those used in this study, can provide a powerful management tool that will continue to improve prediction reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Li-kun, Yang & Sen, Peng & Xin-hua, Zhao & Xia, Li, 2017. "Development of a two-dimensional eutrophication model in an urban lake (China) and the application of uncertainty analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 63-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:345:y:2017:i:c:p:63-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang, Likun & Zhao, Xinhua & Peng, Sen & Li, Xia, 2016. "Water quality assessment analysis by using combination of Bayesian and genetic algorithm approach in an urban lake, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 77-88.
    2. Wu, Guozheng & Xu, Zongxue, 2011. "Prediction of algal blooming using EFDC model: Case study in the Daoxiang Lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(6), pages 1245-1252.
    3. Zhao, Jingyang & Ramin, Maryam & Cheng, Vincent & Arhonditsis, George B., 2008. "Plankton community patterns across a trophic gradient: The role of zooplankton functional groups," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 417-436.
    4. Zou, Rui & Lung, Wu-Seng & Wu, Jing, 2009. "Multiple-pattern parameter identification and uncertainty analysis approach for water quality modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(5), pages 621-629.
    5. Perhar, Gurbir & Arhonditsis, George B. & Brett, Michael T., 2013. "Modeling zooplankton growth in Lake Washington: A mechanistic approach to physiology in a eutrophication model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 101-121.
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    1. Hu, Wen & Li, Chun-hua & Ye, Chun & Wang, Ji & Wei, Wei-wei & Deng, Yong, 2019. "Research progress on ecological models in the field of water eutrophication: CiteSpace analysis based on data from the ISI web of science database," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 410(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Dash, Siddhant & Borah, Smitom Swapna & Kalamdhad, Ajay S., 2020. "Study of the limnology of wetlands through a one-dimensional model for assessing the eutrophication levels induced by various pollution sources," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    3. Wei Kang & Haiyang Wei & Shasha Wu, 2022. "Assessment of Runoff Control Effect with Improved Stepped Bioretention System (ISBS) under Various Rainwater Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Dash, Siddhant & Kalamdhad, Ajay S., 2022. "Systematic bibliographic research on eutrophication-based ecological modelling of aquatic ecosystems through the lens of science mapping," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).

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