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Hierarchical models for describing space-for-time variations in insect population size and sex-ratio along a primary succession

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  • Tenan, S.
  • Maffioletti, C.
  • Caccianiga, M.
  • Compostella, C.
  • Seppi, R.
  • Gobbi, M.

Abstract

Chronosequences of glacier retreat are useful for investigating primary successions over time periods that are longer than direct observation would permit. In this context, space-for-time substitution studies have been applied to assess the effects of climate change on invertebrate assemblages. However, population dynamics of insect species following retreating glaciers has been under-investigated until now due to difficulty in applying capture-recapture methods and correctly identifying species in the field. Removal sampling methods are commonly used, but imperfect detectability is rarely accounted for in the analytical framework. In this paper we study the effects of environmental drivers of spatial, and indirectly temporal, variation in population size and sex-ratio of cold-adapted insects through a hierarchical framework for abundance. We show the importance of a metapopulation design, where samples are replicated in space and time, to model data from small and scattered populations, typically present in habitats with climate-mediated selective pressure like those along glacier forelands. This scattered distribution can influence the observation or sampling process and thus species detectability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tenan, S. & Maffioletti, C. & Caccianiga, M. & Compostella, C. & Seppi, R. & Gobbi, M., 2016. "Hierarchical models for describing space-for-time variations in insect population size and sex-ratio along a primary succession," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 18-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:329:y:2016:i:c:p:18-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tenan, Simone & O’Hara, Robert B. & Hendriks, Iris & Tavecchia, Giacomo, 2014. "Bayesian model selection: The steepest mountain to climb," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 62-69.
    2. Tenan, Simone & Rotger Vallespir, Andreu & Igual, José Manuel & Moya, Óscar & Royle, J. Andrew & Tavecchia, Giacomo, 2013. "Population abundance, size structure and sex-ratio in an insular lizard," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 39-47.
    3. Sigmund Hagvar, 2012. "Primary Succession in Glacier Forelands: How Small Animals Conquer New Land Around Melting Glaciers," Chapters, in: Stephen Young & Steven Silvern (ed.), International Perspectives on Global Environmental Change, IntechOpen.
    4. Robert M. Dorazio & Howard L. Jelks & Frank Jordan, 2005. "Improving Removal-Based Estimates of Abundance by Sampling a Population of Spatially Distinct Subpopulations," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 1093-1101, December.
    5. Kenneth F Kellner & Robert K Swihart, 2014. "Accounting for Imperfect Detection in Ecology: A Quantitative Review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-8, October.
    6. Losapio, Gianalberto & Jordán, Ferenc & Caccianiga, Marco & Gobbi, Mauro, 2015. "Structure-dynamic relationship of plant–insect networks along a primary succession gradient on a glacier foreland," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 314(C), pages 73-79.
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