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Using a bioinspired model to determine the extinction risk of Calotriton asper populations as a result of an increase in extreme rainfall in a scenario of climatic change

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  • Colomer, M. Àngels
  • Montori, Albert
  • García, Eder
  • Fondevilla, Cristian

Abstract

Climate-induced changes in hydrology are potentially one of the greatest threats to most aquatic-breeding amphibians. Collectively, studies indicate that the frequency of heavy precipitation events (or the proportion of severe rainfall from heavy falls) is expected to increase in most areas during the 21st century. Given these projections, it is pertinent to establish whether Calotriton asper populations have the capacity to withstand an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall. Building a reliable model is a key step towards understanding the future dynamics of newt populations in a potential scenario of climatic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Colomer, M. Àngels & Montori, Albert & García, Eder & Fondevilla, Cristian, 2014. "Using a bioinspired model to determine the extinction risk of Calotriton asper populations as a result of an increase in extreme rainfall in a scenario of climatic change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 281(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:281:y:2014:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.02.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colomer, M. Àngels & Margalida, Antoni & Sanuy, Delfí & Pérez-Jiménez, Mario J., 2011. "A bio-inspired computing model as a new tool for modeling ecosystems: The avian scavengers as a case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 33-47.
    2. Sakanoue, Seiichi, 2009. "A resource-based approach to modelling the dynamics of interacting populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(11), pages 1383-1394.
    3. Sakanoue, Seiichi, 2007. "Extended logistic model for growth of single-species populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 159-168.
    4. Jeff. E. Houlahan & C. Scott Findlay & Benedikt R. Schmidt & Andrea H. Meyer & Sergius L. Kuzmin, 2000. "Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 404(6779), pages 752-755, April.
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    1. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.

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