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UK's stock market reaction to Brexit process: A tale of two halves

Author

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  • Shahzad, Khurram
  • Rubbaniy, Ghulame
  • Lensvelt, M.A.P.E.
  • Bhatti, Tariq

Abstract

We examine the UK's stock market reaction to 27 events associated with the likelihood of Brexit. Though the overall market reactions to these events is negative, a dissection of these events into the pre and post Brexit referendum events unearth interesting facts. In particular, we find that the market reaction is negative and significant to the events leading up to and including the announcement of Brexit results. This negative reaction is not confined to the day of announcement of the outcome of Brexit referendum only rather it spans over the events that enhanced the likelihood of the Brexit in the pre-Brexit referendum period. However, our results show a positive market reaction to events that occurred after the Brexit referendum. These findings suggest that initially market reacted negatively to the Brexit; however, as the UK's future economic relations with EU started to take a shape, the market started to see the positive side of Brexit. Consistent with this notion, our cross-sectional analysis shows a positive market reaction for the firms that are engaged in foreign sales and that much of the negative market's reaction relates to the firms that openly stated the negative effect of Brexit on their operations. Finally, we do not find evidence of market reaction to UK firms depending on European labor force; however, we do find significantly positive stock market reaction to the firms involved more in international trade. An important caveat of our study is that our reported results are sensitive to the choice of market index.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahzad, Khurram & Rubbaniy, Ghulame & Lensvelt, M.A.P.E. & Bhatti, Tariq, 2019. "UK's stock market reaction to Brexit process: A tale of two halves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 275-283.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:275-283
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.013
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Angosto-Fernández Pedro Luis & Ferrández-Serrano Victoria, 2022. "World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 8(4), pages 5-38, December.
    2. Fernández, Xosé Luís & Paz-Saavedra, David & Coto-Millán, Pablo, 2020. "The impact of Brexit on bank efficiency: Evidence from UK and Ireland," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Xu, Jin & Huang, Shoujun & Shi, Lu & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Trade conflicts and energy firms' market values: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Hedging UK stock portfolios with gold and oil: The impact of Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Doriana Cucinelli & Paola Schwizer & Maria Gaia Soana, 2023. "Brexit and the Banking Sector: The Stock Market Reaction of UK and European Banks," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(4), pages 1-27, February.

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