Actuarial risk assessment in child protective services: Construction methodology and performance criteria
To prevent the recurrence of child maltreatment, actuarial risk assessment can help child protective services (CPS) workers make more accurate and consistent decisions. However, there are few published articles describing construction methodologies and performance criteria to evaluate how well actuarial risk assessments perform in CPS. This article describes methodology to construct and revise an actuarial risk assessment, reviews criteria to evaluate the performance of actuarial tools, and applies a methodology and performance criteria in one state.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Dettlaff, Alan J. & Rivaux, Stephanie L. & Baumann, Donald J. & Fluke, John D. & Rycraft, Joan R. & James, Joyce, 2011. "Disentangling substantiation: The influence of race, income, and risk on the substantiation decision in child welfare," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1630-1637, September.
- Shlonsky, Aron & Wagner, Dennis, 2005. "The next step: Integrating actuarial risk assessment and clinical judgment into an evidence-based practice framework in CPS case management," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 409-427, April.
- MacKenzie, Michael J. & Kotch, Jonathan B. & Lee, Li-Ching, 2011. "Toward a cumulative ecological risk model for the etiology of child maltreatment," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1638-1647, September.
- Simpson, Douglas G. & Imrey, Peter B. & Geling, Olga & Butkus, Susan, 2000. "Statistical estimation of child abuse rates from administrative databases," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 951-971.
- Baird, Christopher & Wagner, Dennis, 2000. "The relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 839-871.
- Camasso, Michael J. & Jagannathan, Radha, 2000. "Modeling the reliability and predictive validity of risk assessment in child protective services," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 873-896.
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