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Actuarial risk assessment in child protective services: Construction methodology and performance criteria

Author

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  • Coohey, Carol
  • Johnson, Kristen
  • Renner, Lynette M.
  • Easton, Scott D.

Abstract

To prevent the recurrence of child maltreatment, actuarial risk assessment can help child protective services (CPS) workers make more accurate and consistent decisions. However, there are few published articles describing construction methodologies and performance criteria to evaluate how well actuarial risk assessments perform in CPS. This article describes methodology to construct and revise an actuarial risk assessment, reviews criteria to evaluate the performance of actuarial tools, and applies a methodology and performance criteria in one state.

Suggested Citation

  • Coohey, Carol & Johnson, Kristen & Renner, Lynette M. & Easton, Scott D., 2013. "Actuarial risk assessment in child protective services: Construction methodology and performance criteria," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 151-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:151-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2012.09.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shlonsky, Aron & Wagner, Dennis, 2005. "The next step: Integrating actuarial risk assessment and clinical judgment into an evidence-based practice framework in CPS case management," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 409-427, April.
    2. MacKenzie, Michael J. & Kotch, Jonathan B. & Lee, Li-Ching, 2011. "Toward a cumulative ecological risk model for the etiology of child maltreatment," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1638-1647, September.
    3. Simpson, Douglas G. & Imrey, Peter B. & Geling, Olga & Butkus, Susan, 2000. "Statistical estimation of child abuse rates from administrative databases," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 951-971.
    4. Camasso, Michael J. & Jagannathan, Radha, 2000. "Modeling the reliability and predictive validity of risk assessment in child protective services," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 873-896.
    5. Baird, Christopher & Wagner, Dennis, 2000. "The relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 839-871.
    6. Dettlaff, Alan J. & Rivaux, Stephanie L. & Baumann, Donald J. & Fluke, John D. & Rycraft, Joan R. & James, Joyce, 2011. "Disentangling substantiation: The influence of race, income, and risk on the substantiation decision in child welfare," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1630-1637, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emily Hurren & Anna Stewart & Susan Dennison, 2017. "New Methods to Address Old Challenges: The Use of Administrative Data for Longitudinal Replication Studies of Child Maltreatment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-12, September.
    2. Schwartz, Ira M. & York, Peter & Nowakowski-Sims, Eva & Ramos-Hernandez, Ana, 2017. "Predictive and prescriptive analytics, machine learning and child welfare risk assessment: The Broward County experience," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 309-320.
    3. Semanchin Jones, Annette & Logan-Greene, Patricia, 2016. "Understanding and responding to chronic neglect: A mixed methods case record examination," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 212-219.
    4. Shipe, Stacey L. & Uretsky, Mathew C. & Shaw, Terry V., 2022. "Family outcomes in alternative response: A multilevel analysis of recurrence," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Jenkins, Brian Q. & Tilbury, Clare & Hayes, Hennessey & Mazerolle, Paul, 2019. "Do measures of child protection recurrence obscure the differences between reporting and substantiation?," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Johnson, Will & Clancy, Thomas & Bastian, Pascal, 2015. "Child abuse/neglect risk assessment under field practice conditions: Tests of external and temporal validity and comparison with heart disease prediction," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 76-85.
    7. van der Put, Claudia E. & Assink, Mark & Stams, Geert Jan J.M., 2016. "Predicting relapse of problematic child-rearing situations," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 288-295.
    8. Johanna Caldwell & Vandna Sinha, 2020. "(Re) Conceptualizing Neglect: Considering the Overrepresentation of Indigenous Children in Child Welfare Systems in Canada," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 13(2), pages 481-512, April.

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