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Short-term forecasting of crude petroleum and natural gas production


  • Uri, Noel D.
  • Flanagan, Stephen P.


This paper details the Box-Jenkins approach to forecasting time series and applies it to short-term natural gas marketed production and crude petroleum production in the United States. After establishing the efficacy of the approach for forecasting the two series of interest, monthly forecasts for 1978 are made. The results indicate that natural gas production in 1978 will increase by 2·8 per cent over the 1977 level while crude petroleum production will fall by 4·0 per cent.

Suggested Citation

  • Uri, Noel D. & Flanagan, Stephen P., 1979. "Short-term forecasting of crude petroleum and natural gas production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 297-310, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:5:y:1979:i:4:p:297-310

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    Cited by:

    1. Neto, João C. do L. & da Costa Junior, Carlos T. & Bitar, Sandro D.B. & Junior, Walter B., 2011. "Forecasting of energy and diesel consumption and the cost of energy production in isolated electrical systems in the Amazon using a fuzzification process in time series models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4947-4955, September.
    2. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.

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