IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v387y2025ics0306261925002934.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the impact of heating electrification and prosumaging on the future distribution grid costs

Author

Listed:
  • Mascherbauer, Philipp
  • Martínez, Miguel
  • Mateo, Carlos
  • Yu, Songmin
  • Kranzl, Lukas

Abstract

The electrification of households’ heating systems will lead to an increase in the electricity demand, which will necessitate additional investments in the grid infrastructure. The interaction with other technologies, including PV, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), and home energy management systems (HEMSs), further complicate the situation. In this study, we analyze the following question: How will prosumaging households, who consume, produce and manage their energy consumption with HEMS, impact the future reinforcement costs of the electricity distribution grid? We conducted case studies for two urban areas, Murcia in Spain and Leeuwarden in The Netherlands. First, by developing scenarios on the uptake of electrified heating systems, PV installations, battery storage, EVs and HEMSs, the energy demand of each building is modeled for the two areas under different scenarios. Then, the buildings’ electricity load profiles were provided to a second model, to calculate the necessary distribution grid infrastructure to cover this demand on a granular spatial level. Results show that low voltage lines and transformers will need significant investments, especially in the regions where a high share of conventional heating systems are replaced by heat pumps but also in regions where the aggregate electricity peak demand is reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Mascherbauer, Philipp & Martínez, Miguel & Mateo, Carlos & Yu, Songmin & Kranzl, Lukas, 2025. "Analyzing the impact of heating electrification and prosumaging on the future distribution grid costs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 387(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:387:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925002934
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925002934
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125563?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Le Dréau, J. & Heiselberg, P., 2016. "Energy flexibility of residential buildings using short term heat storage in the thermal mass," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 991-1002.
    2. Wang, Cuiling & Wang, Baolong & You, Fengqi, 2024. "Demand response for residential buildings using hierarchical nonlinear model predictive control for plug-and-play," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    3. Gupta, Ruchi & Pena-Bello, Alejandro & Streicher, Kai Nino & Roduner, Cattia & Farhat, Yamshid & Thöni, David & Patel, Martin Kumar & Parra, David, 2021. "Spatial analysis of distribution grid capacity and costs to enable massive deployment of PV, electric mobility and electric heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    4. Protopapadaki, Christina & Saelens, Dirk, 2017. "Heat pump and PV impact on residential low-voltage distribution grids as a function of building and district properties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 268-281.
    5. Felipe Gonzalez & Marc Petit & Yannick Perez, 2021. "Plug-in behavior of electric vehicles users: Insights from a large-scale trial and impacts for grid integration studies," Post-Print hal-03363782, HAL.
    6. Fischer, David & Harbrecht, Alexander & Surmann, Arne & McKenna, Russell, 2019. "Electric vehicles’ impacts on residential electric local profiles – A stochastic modelling approach considering socio-economic, behavioural and spatial factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 644-658.
    7. Golmohamadi, Hessam, 2021. "Stochastic energy optimization of residential heat pumps in uncertain electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    8. Klingler, Anna-Lena, 2018. "The effect of electric vehicles and heat pumps on the market potential of PV + battery systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1064-1073.
    9. Stute, Judith & Klobasa, Marian, 2024. "How do dynamic electricity tariffs and different grid charge designs interact? - Implications for residential consumers and grid reinforcement requirements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Mascherbauer, Philipp & Kranzl, Lukas & Yu, Songmin & Haupt, Thomas, 2022. "Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S04/2022, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    11. Hartvigsson, Elias & Taljegard, Maria & Odenberger, Mikael & Chen, Peiyuan, 2022. "A large-scale high-resolution geographic analysis of impacts of electric vehicle charging on low-voltage grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    12. Lotfi, Mohamed & Almeida, Tiago & Javadi, Mohammad S. & Osório, Gerardo J. & Monteiro, Cláudio & Catalão, João P.S., 2022. "Coordinating energy management systems in smart cities with electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    13. Zhang, Yichi & Johansson, Pär & Kalagasidis, Angela Sasic, 2021. "Techno-economic assessment of thermal energy storage technologies for demand-side management in low-temperature individual heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    14. Salpakari, Jyri & Rasku, Topi & Lindgren, Juuso & Lund, Peter D., 2017. "Flexibility of electric vehicles and space heating in net zero energy houses: an optimal control model with thermal dynamics and battery degradation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 800-812.
    15. Navarro-Espinosa, Alejandro & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "Probabilistic modeling and assessment of the impact of electric heat pumps on low voltage distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 249-266.
    16. Calearo, Lisa & Marinelli, Mattia & Ziras, Charalampos, 2021. "A review of data sources for electric vehicle integration studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Mascherbauer, Philipp & Kranzl, Lukas & Yu, Songmin & Haupt, Thomas, 2022. "Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    18. Earle, Lieko & Maguire, Jeff & Munankarmi, Prateek & Roberts, David, 2023. "The impact of energy-efficiency upgrades and other distributed energy resources on a residential neighborhood-scale electrification retrofit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernd Thormann & Thomas Kienberger, 2022. "Estimation of Grid Reinforcement Costs Triggered by Future Grid Customers: Influence of the Quantification Method (Scaling vs. Large-Scale Simulation) and Coincidence Factors (Single vs. Multiple Appl," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Mascherbauer, Philipp & Kranzl, Lukas & Yu, Songmin & Haupt, Thomas, 2022. "Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    3. Mascherbauer, Philipp & Kranzl, Lukas & Yu, Songmin & Haupt, Thomas, 2022. "Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S04/2022, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. Rieck, Katharina & Dabrock, Kristina & Pflugradt, Noah & Weinand, Jann Michael & Stolten, Detlef, 2025. "Large-scale quantification of the future self-covered heat demand using a nationwide residential building database," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    5. Guo, Rui & Meunier, Simon & Protopapadaki, Christina & Saelens, Dirk, 2023. "A review of European low-voltage distribution networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Wüllhorst, Fabian & Schwarz, Sebastian & Fuchs, Nico & Maier, Laura & Monti, Antonello & Müller, Dirk, 2025. "Impact of hybrid heat pump shares and building envelope retrofit rates on load penetration in German low-voltage grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    7. Damianakis, Nikolaos & Mouli, Gautham Ram Chandra & Bauer, Pavol & Yu, Yunhe, 2023. "Assessing the grid impact of Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps & PV generation in Dutch LV distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    8. Guo, Yurun & Wang, Shugang & Wang, Jihong & Zhang, Tengfei & Ma, Zhenjun & Jiang, Shuang, 2024. "Key district heating technologies for building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    9. Yamaguchi, Yohei & Shoda, Yuto & Yoshizawa, Shinya & Imai, Tatsuya & Perwez, Usama & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2023. "Feasibility assessment of net zero-energy transformation of building stock using integrated synthetic population, building stock, and power distribution network framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    10. Finck, Christian & Li, Rongling & Kramer, Rick & Zeiler, Wim, 2018. "Quantifying demand flexibility of power-to-heat and thermal energy storage in the control of building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 409-425.
    11. Golmohamadi, Hessam & Larsen, Kim Guldstrand & Jensen, Peter Gjøl & Hasrat, Imran Riaz, 2022. "Integration of flexibility potentials of district heating systems into electricity markets: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Semmelmann, Leo & Hertel, Matthias & Kircher, Kevin J. & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Weinhardt, Christof, 2024. "The impact of heat pumps on day-ahead energy community load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    13. Hoarau, Quentin & Perez, Yannick, 2018. "Interactions between electric mobility and photovoltaic generation: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 510-522.
    14. Christian van Someren & Martien Visser & Han Slootweg, 2023. "Sizing Batteries for Power Flow Management in Distribution Grids: A Method to Compare Battery Capacities for Different Siting Configurations and Variable Power Flow Simultaneity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Nizami, Sohrab & Tushar, Wayes & Hossain, M.J. & Yuen, Chau & Saha, Tapan & Poor, H. Vincent, 2022. "Transactive energy for low voltage residential networks: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    16. Gallardo, Andres & Berardi, Umberto, 2022. "Evaluation of the energy flexibility potential of radiant ceiling panels with thermal energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    17. Buonomano, Annamaria, 2020. "Building to Vehicle to Building concept: A comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis for decision making aims," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    18. Buonomano, A. & Calise, F. & Cappiello, F.L. & Palombo, A. & Vicidomini, M., 2019. "Dynamic analysis of the integration of electric vehicles in efficient buildings fed by renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 31-50.
    19. Sevdari, Kristian & Calearo, Lisa & Andersen, Peter Bach & Marinelli, Mattia, 2022. "Ancillary services and electric vehicles: An overview from charging clusters and chargers technology perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    20. Ma, Yiju & Azuatalam, Donald & Power, Thomas & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2019. "A novel probabilistic framework to study the impact of photovoltaic-battery systems on low-voltage distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:387:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925002934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.