IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v211y2018icp89-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to building performance simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Østergård, Torben
  • Jensen, Rasmus Lund
  • Maagaard, Steffen Enersen

Abstract

Building performance simulations (BPS) are used to test different designs and systems with the intention of reducing building costs and energy demand while ensuring a comfortable indoor climate. Unfortunately, software for BPS is computationally intensive. This makes it impractical to run thousands of simulations for sensitivity analysis and optimization. Worse yet, millions of simulations may be necessary for a thorough exploration of the high-dimensional design space formed by the many design parameters. This computational issue may be overcome by the creation of fast metamodels. In this paper, we aim to find suitable metamodeling techniques for diverse outputs from BPS. We consider five indicators of building performance and eight test problems for the comparison six popular metamodeling techniques – linear regression with ordinary least squares (OLS), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), multivariate adaptive regression splines, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and neural network (NN). The methods are compared with respect to accuracy, efficiency, ease-of-use, robustness, and interpretability. To conduct a fair and in-depth comparison, a methodological approach is pursued using exhaustive grid searches for model selection assisted by sensitivity analysis. The comparison shows that GPR produces the most accurate metamodels, followed by NN and MARS. GPR is robust and easy to implement but becomes inefficient for large training sets compared to NN and MARS. A coefficient of determination, R2, larger than 0.9 have been obtained for the BPS outputs using between 128 and 1024 training points. In contrast, accurate metamodels with R2 values larger than 0.99 can be achieved for all eight test problems using only 32–256 training points.

Suggested Citation

  • Østergård, Torben & Jensen, Rasmus Lund & Maagaard, Steffen Enersen, 2018. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to building performance simulations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 89-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:211:y:2018:i:c:p:89-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917315489
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.102?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Machairas, Vasileios & Tsangrassoulis, Aris & Axarli, Kleo, 2014. "Algorithms for optimization of building design: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 101-112.
    2. Mavromatidis, Lazaros Elias & Marsault, Xavier & Lequay, Hervé, 2014. "Daylight factor estimation at an early design stage to reduce buildings' energy consumption due to artificial lighting: A numerical approach based on Doehlert and Box–Behnken designs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 488-502.
    3. Evins, Ralph, 2013. "A review of computational optimisation methods applied to sustainable building design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 230-245.
    4. Østergård, Torben & Jensen, Rasmus L. & Maagaard, Steffen E., 2016. "Building simulations supporting decision making in early design – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 187-201.
    5. Tian, Wei, 2013. "A review of sensitivity analysis methods in building energy analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 411-419.
    6. Yuan, Jun & Nian, Victor & Su, Bin & Meng, Qun, 2017. "A simultaneous calibration and parameter ranking method for building energy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 657-666.
    7. Chen, Xi & Yang, Hongxing & Sun, Ke, 2017. "Developing a meta-model for sensitivity analyses and prediction of building performance for passively designed high-rise residential buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 422-439.
    8. Manfren, Massimiliano & Aste, Niccolò & Moshksar, Reza, 2013. "Calibration and uncertainty analysis for computer models – A meta-model based approach for integrated building energy simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 627-641.
    9. Yildiz, B. & Bilbao, J.I. & Sproul, A.B., 2017. "A review and analysis of regression and machine learning models on commercial building electricity load forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1104-1122.
    10. Yang, Zheng & Becerik-Gerber, Burcin, 2015. "A model calibration framework for simultaneous multi-level building energy simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 415-431.
    11. Nguyen, Anh-Tuan & Reiter, Sigrid & Rigo, Philippe, 2014. "A review on simulation-based optimization methods applied to building performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1043-1058.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar & Choongwan Koo & Tae Wan Kim & Seung Hyun Cha, 2021. "Performance Optimization Studies on Heating, Cooling and Lighting Energy Systems of Buildings during the Design Stage: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-47, September.
    2. Ramos Ruiz, Germán & Fernández Bandera, Carlos & Gómez-Acebo Temes, Tomás & Sánchez-Ostiz Gutierrez, Ana, 2016. "Genetic algorithm for building envelope calibration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 691-705.
    3. Østergård, Torben & Jensen, Rasmus L. & Maagaard, Steffen E., 2016. "Building simulations supporting decision making in early design – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 187-201.
    4. Wate, P. & Iglesias, M. & Coors, V. & Robinson, D., 2020. "Framework for emulation and uncertainty quantification of a stochastic building performance simulator," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    5. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    6. Ramos Ruiz, Germán & Fernández Bandera, Carlos, 2017. "Analysis of uncertainty indices used for building envelope calibration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 82-94.
    7. Nayara R. M. Sakiyama & Joyce C. Carlo & Leonardo Mazzaferro & Harald Garrecht, 2021. "Building Optimization through a Parametric Design Platform: Using Sensitivity Analysis to Improve a Radial-Based Algorithm Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.
    8. Eleftheria Touloupaki & Theodoros Theodosiou, 2017. "Performance Simulation Integrated in Parametric 3D Modeling as a Method for Early Stage Design Optimization—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Prada, A. & Gasparella, A. & Baggio, P., 2018. "On the performance of meta-models in building design optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 814-826.
    10. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "Impact of adjustment strategies on building design process in different climates oriented by multiple performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    11. Tronchin, Lamberto & Manfren, Massimiliano & James, Patrick AB., 2018. "Linking design and operation performance analysis through model calibration: Parametric assessment on a Passive House building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 26-40.
    12. Aste, Niccolò & Leonforte, Fabrizio & Manfren, Massimiliano & Mazzon, Manlio, 2015. "Thermal inertia and energy efficiency – Parametric simulation assessment on a calibrated case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 111-123.
    13. Enrico Fabrizio & Valentina Monetti, 2015. "Methodologies and Advancements in the Calibration of Building Energy Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-27, March.
    14. Shaoxiong Li & Le Liu & Changhai Peng, 2020. "A Review of Performance-Oriented Architectural Design and Optimization in the Context of Sustainability: Dividends and Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-36, February.
    15. Edwards, Richard E. & New, Joshua & Parker, Lynne E. & Cui, Borui & Dong, Jin, 2017. "Constructing large scale surrogate models from big data and artificial intelligence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 685-699.
    16. Yang, Tao & Pan, Yiqun & Mao, Jiachen & Wang, Yonglong & Huang, Zhizhong, 2016. "An automated optimization method for calibrating building energy simulation models with measured data: Orientation and a case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1220-1231.
    17. Guariso, Giorgio & Sangiorgio, Matteo, 2019. "Multi-objective planning of building stock renovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 101-110.
    18. Waibel, Christoph & Evins, Ralph & Carmeliet, Jan, 2019. "Co-simulation and optimization of building geometry and multi-energy systems: Interdependencies in energy supply, energy demand and solar potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1661-1682.
    19. Sun, Kaiyu & Hong, Tianzhen & Taylor-Lange, Sarah C. & Piette, Mary Ann, 2016. "A pattern-based automated approach to building energy model calibration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 214-224.
    20. Cristina Brunelli & Francesco Castellani & Alberto Garinei & Lorenzo Biondi & Marcello Marconi, 2016. "A Procedure to Perform Multi-Objective Optimization for Sustainable Design of Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-15, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:211:y:2018:i:c:p:89-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.