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A stochastic SIQR epidemic model with Lévy jumps and three-time delays

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  • Zhang, Ge
  • Li, Zhiming
  • Din, Anwarud

Abstract

Isolation and vaccination are the two most effective measures in protecting the public from the spread of illness. The SIQR model with vaccination is widely used to investigate the dynamics of an infectious disease at population level having the compartments: susceptible, infectious, quarantined and recovered. The paper mainly aims to extend the deterministic model to a stochastic SQIR case with Lévy jumps and three-time delays, which is more suitable for modeling complex and instable environment. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution are obtained by using the Lyapunov method. The dynamic properties of stochastic solution are studied around the disease-free and endemic equilibria of the deterministic model. Our results reveal that stochastic perturbation affect the asymptotic properties of the model. Numerical simulation shows the effects of interested parameters of theoretical results, including quarantine, vaccination and jump parameters. Finally, we apply both the stochastic and deterministic models to analyze the outbreak of mutant COVID-19 epidemic in Gansu Province, China.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Ge & Li, Zhiming & Din, Anwarud, 2022. "A stochastic SIQR epidemic model with Lévy jumps and three-time delays," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:431:y:2022:i:c:s0096300322004039
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2022.127329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. RabieiMotlagh, Omid & Soleimani, Leila, 2023. "Effect of mutations on stochastic dynamics of infectious diseases, a probability approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 451(C).

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