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COVID-era forecasting: Google trends and window and model averaging

Author

Listed:
  • Llewellyn, Mary
  • Ross, Gordon
  • Ryan-Saha, Joshua

Abstract

•Google Trends data can provide extra information when historic data are unsuitable.•Informative Google Trends data may show short-term fluctuations in unstable periods.•Model averaging using recent performance adapts to short-term changes in relevance.•Window averaging helps to mitigates against uncertainty in the relevance period.•Edinburgh tourism demand forecasts are improved by such window and model averaging.

Suggested Citation

  • Llewellyn, Mary & Ross, Gordon & Ryan-Saha, Joshua, 2023. "COVID-era forecasting: Google trends and window and model averaging," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:103:y:2023:i:c:s0160738323001330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2023.103660
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