IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v313y2025ics0378377425002057.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Water and heat resource utilization influence cotton yield through sowing date optimization under varied climate

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, Hamad
  • Khan, Nangial
  • Khan, Zeeshan
  • Yingchun, Han
  • Beifang, Yang
  • Yaping, Lei
  • Xiaoyu, Zhi
  • Shiwu, Xiong
  • Shilong, Shang
  • Yunzhen, Ma
  • Yahui, Jiao
  • Tao, Lin
  • Li, Yabing

Abstract

Drought threatens to destroy almost 70 % of the world's cotton supply. Optimizing sowing dates is an agricultural strategy that may help synchronize ecology and productivity. Field data on the coupling impact of various environmental resources on cotton and its response to climate change under sowing date control is still lacking, though. This study examined how resource use efficiencies like water use efficiency (WUE), water consumption, water productivity and heat production efficiency (PEsoil) changed during six sowing dates (S1-S6) over two years (2023 and 2024), characterized by distinct temperature and rainfall. Results revealed that in 2023, optimal climatic conditions and well-timed rainfall events led to a maximum seed cotton yield under S4 (+178 % increase), whereas late sowing (S6) led to a −10 % decrease compared to S1. However, in 2024, delayed sowing had a more adverse impact, with yield declined up to −39 %, likely due to irregular rainfall and suboptimal temperature distribution during critical reproductive stages. The highest water use amounted to the flowering and boll development stages, exceeding 700 mm in late sowing treatments. However, WUE and WPc in delayed sowing were substantially lower than in early sowing, indicating inefficient resource conversion. Furthermore, statistical analysis of year-to-year specific positive correlations with resource use metrics were found to be significant with seed cotton yield. In 2023, WUE (R² = 0.8350), WPc (R² = 0.7189), and PEsoil (R² = 0.8586) were correlated (strongly) with early sowing dates (S1 and S2) due to optimal timing of growth stages with respect to temperature and rainfall regimes. Though the overall R2 values were slightly reduced with changed rainfall pattern and cooler peak temperatures, early sowing still had a positive correlation with WUE (R2 = 0.81), WPc (R2 = 0.69), and PEsoil (R2 = 0.78) during 2024, implying stable performance under variable climatic conditions. Similarly, these early sowing treatments also had more stable aboveground biomass, had higher LAI and demonstrated the ability to synchronize phenological state with hydrothermal availability. Principal component analysis (PCA) also confirmed that early sowing increased resource use coupling and yield resilience under the two climatic years. This study introduces a novel integration of temporal sowing optimization, multi-sensor environmental monitoring, and resource coupling analysis. Future studies should focus on integrating climate forecasting models with sowing date recommendations to enable dynamic, site-specific cotton management.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Hamad & Khan, Nangial & Khan, Zeeshan & Yingchun, Han & Beifang, Yang & Yaping, Lei & Xiaoyu, Zhi & Shiwu, Xiong & Shilong, Shang & Yunzhen, Ma & Yahui, Jiao & Tao, Lin & Li, Yabing, 2025. "Water and heat resource utilization influence cotton yield through sowing date optimization under varied climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:313:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425002057
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109491
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425002057
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109491?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernández, J.E. & Alcon, F. & Diaz-Espejo, A. & Hernandez-Santana, V. & Cuevas, M.V., 2020. "Water use indicators and economic analysis for on-farm irrigation decision: A case study of a super high density olive tree orchard," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Acharjee, Tapos Kumar & van Halsema, Gerardo & Ludwig, Fulco & Hellegers, Petra & Supit, Iwan, 2019. "Shifting planting date of Boro rice as a climate change adaptation strategy to reduce water use," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 131-143.
    3. Tsakmakis, I.D. & Kokkos, N.P. & Gikas, G.D. & Pisinaras, V. & Hatzigiannakis, E. & Arampatzis, G. & Sylaios, G.K., 2019. "Evaluation of AquaCrop model simulations of cotton growth under deficit irrigation with an emphasis on root growth and water extraction patterns," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 419-432.
    4. Li, Na & Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Chen, Junqing & Liu, Deli & Biswas, Asim & Li, Linchao & Wang, Tianxue & Chen, Xinguo, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Samira Shayanmehr & Jana Ivanič Porhajašová & Mária Babošová & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Hosein Mohammadi & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2022. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Crop Production in an Arid Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, July.
    6. Brar, Harjeet Singh & Singh, Pritpal, 2022. "Pre-and post-sowing irrigation scheduling impacts on crop phenology and water productivity of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in sub-tropical north-western India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    7. Adnan Arshad & Muhammad Ali Raza & Yue Zhang & Lizhen Zhang & Xuejiao Wang & Mukhtar Ahmed & Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman, 2021. "Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Wang, Jiangtao & Du, Gangfeng & Tian, Jingshan & Jiang, Chuangdao & Zhang, Yali & Zhang, Wangfeng, 2021. "Mulched drip irrigation increases cotton yield and water use efficiency via improving fine root plasticity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    9. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    10. Lu, Hai-dong & Xue, Ji-quan & Guo, Dong-wei, 2017. "Efficacy of planting date adjustment as a cultivation strategy to cope with drought stress and increase rainfed maize yield and water-use efficiency," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 227-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Haidong & Cheng, Minghui & Liao, Zhenqi & Guo, Jinjin & Zhang, Fucang & Fan, Junliang & Feng, Hao & Yang, Qiliang & Wu, Lifeng & Wang, Xiukang, 2023. "Performance evaluation of AquaCrop and DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato models in simulating potato growth, yield and water productivity under various drip fertigation regimes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Dang, Yongcai & Qin, Lijie & Huang, Lirong & Wang, Jianqin & Li, Bo & He, Hongshi, 2022. "Water footprint of rain-fed maize in different growth stages and associated climatic driving forces in Northeast China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    3. Mo, Yan & Li, Guangyong & Wang, Dan & Lamm, Freddie R. & Wang, Jiandong & Zhang, Yanqun & Cai, Mingkun & Gong, Shihong, 2020. "Planting and preemergence irrigation procedures to enhance germination of subsurface drip irrigated corn," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Ernest Baba Ali & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2024. "Climate change, food security, and sustainable production: a comparison between arid and semi-arid environments of Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 359-391, January.
    5. Wang, Xiaobo & Wang, Shaoqiang & Folberth, Christian & Skalsky, Rastislav & Li, Hui & Liu, Yuanyuan & Balkovic, Juraj, 2024. "Limiting global warming to 2 °C benefits building climate resilience in rice-wheat systems in India through crop calendar management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Wu, Fengqi & Guo, Simeng & Huang, Weibin & Zhang, Zhenggui & Han, Yingchun & Wang, Zhanbiao & Wang, Guoping & Feng, Lu & Li, Xiaofei & Lei, Yaping & Zhi, Xiaoyu & Yang, Beifang & Zhang, Shijie & Xiong, 2024. "Extreme rainfall and soil water consumption differences increase yield shedding at lower fruiting branches, reducing cotton water productivity under different sowing dates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    7. Nicolette Matthews & Bennie Grové & Johannes Hendrikus Barnard, 2025. "Economic Analysis of Segmented Soil Salinity Management Using Current Irrigation Technology," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Arbizu-Milagro, Julia & Castillo-Ruiz, Francisco J. & Tascón, Alberto & Peña, Jose M., 2023. "Effects of regulated, precision and continuous deficit irrigation on the growth and productivity of a young super high-density olive orchard," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. Cameira, Maria do Rosário & Rodrigo, Isabel & Garção, Andreia & Neves, Manuela & Ferreira, Antónia & Paredes, Paula, 2024. "Linking participatory approach and rapid appraisal methods to select potential innovations in collective irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    10. Namra Ghaffar & Bushra Noreen & Maryam Muhammad Ali & Amna Ali, 2021. "Rice Yield Estimation in Sawat Region Incorporating The Local Physio-Climatic Parameters," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 3(2), pages 46-50, June.
    11. Darouich, Hanaa & Karfoul, Razan & Ramos, Tiago B. & Moustafa, Ali & Shaheen, Baraa & Pereira, Luis S., 2021. "Crop water requirements and crop coefficients for jute mallow (Corchorus olitorius L.) using the SIMDualKc model and assessing irrigation strategies for the Syrian Akkar region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Feng, Z.Y. & Qin, T. & Du, X.Z. & Sheng, F. & Li, C.F., 2021. "Effects of irrigation regime and rice variety on greenhouse gas emissions and grain yields from paddy fields in central China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    14. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Chen, Dali & Bao, Jinglong & Chen, Tao & Bai, Mengjie & Pan, Jia & Yuan, Haiying & Wang, Yanrong & Nan, Zhibiao & Hu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Effect of drip irrigation and boron application on enhancing seed production of sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    16. Ignaciuk, Ada & Malevolti, Giulia & Scognamillo, Antonio & Sitko, Nicholas J., "undated". "Can food aid relax farmers’ constraints to adopting climate-adaptive agricultural practices? Evidence from Ethiopia, Malawi and the United Republic of Tanzania," ESA Working Papers 324073, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    17. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal & Abdur Rauf, 2019. "Analysis of wheat farmers’ risk perceptions and attitudes: evidence from Punjab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 845-861, February.
    18. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    19. Guga, Suri & Bole, Yi & Riao, Dao & Bilige, Sudu & Wei, Sicheng & Li, Kaiwei & Zhang, Jiquan & Tong, Zhijun & Liu, Xingpeng, 2025. "The challenge of chilling injury amid shifting maize planting boundaries: A case study of Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    20. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:313:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425002057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.