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Investigation of a composite two-phase hedging rule policy for a multi reservoir system using streamflow forecast

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  • Mostaghimzadeh, Ehsan
  • Adib, Arash
  • Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad
  • Kisi, Ozgur

Abstract

Long-term changes in reservoir inflow due to climate changes and human interference violate the assumptions of hydrologic stationarity especially in the reservoir design. Utilization of uncertain prediction into a reservoir operating rule curves somehow reflects the challenges that imposed by nonstationary conditions. This study proposes a hedging based policy incorporated forecast term to manage release decisions in two separate phases. Hedging is applied firstly regarding to reservoir water level similar to conventional hedging rules and secondary according to an extra simulation in the near future. To determine the time interval of future effects, an exterior optimization model is introduced to handle the trade-off between forecast uncertainty and future information which imposed by forecast horizon. Future inflows are forecasted introducing a model including a wrapper-based feature selection method and AdaBoost.RT as a learning algorithm. The results of applying the model to a real six reservoir system in IRAN showed that incorporating future inflows into the real time decisions significantly improves the total squared relative deficit about 20% and 10% compared to conventional hedging rule curve (CHRC) and standard operation policy as objective function. Also having a glance at the near future reduces the vulnerability of the system about 5% and 27% respectively against CHRC and SOP. The results also showed that, although the SOP reaches to a best reliability of satisfying water demands in total system as 31% and 27% better than CHRC and the proposed two-phase policy, but the number of intensified failures was higher than two others which somehow influences on volume-based indices like vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mostaghimzadeh, Ehsan & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Investigation of a composite two-phase hedging rule policy for a multi reservoir system using streamflow forecast," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:265:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422000890
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107542
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bin Xu & Xin Huang & Ping-an Zhong & Yenan Wu, 2020. "Two-Phase Risk Hedging Rules for Informing Conservation of Flood Resources in Reservoir Operation Considering Inflow Forecast Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2731-2752, July.
    2. Youngkyu Jin & Sangho Lee, 2019. "Comparative Effectiveness of Reservoir Operation Applying Hedging Rules Based on Available Water and Beginning Storage to Cope with Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1897-1911, March.
    3. Wenhua Wan & Jianshi Zhao & Jiabiao Wang, 2019. "Revisiting Water Supply Rule Curves with Hedging Theory for Climate Change Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Fereshteh Modaresi & Shahab Araghinejad & Kumars Ebrahimi, 2018. "A Comparative Assessment of Artificial Neural Network, Generalized Regression Neural Network, Least-Square Support Vector Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression for Monthly Streamflow Forecasti," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 243-258, January.
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    1. Beshavard, Mahdi & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Establishing effective warning storage to derive optimal reservoir operation policy based on the drought condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    2. Luis Garrote & Alfredo Granados & Mike Spiliotis & Francisco Martin-Carrasco, 2023. "Effectiveness of Adaptive Operating Rules for Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2527-2542, May.

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