IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v121y2013icp53-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation analysis of factors affecting sorghum yield at selected sites in eastern and southern Africa, with emphasis on increasing temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Turner, Neil C.
  • Rao, K.P.C.

Abstract

Global warming is widely predicted to decrease crop yields in tropical, sub-tropical and Mediterranean climatic regions as a result of a speeding up of phenological development and shortening of the time to maturity. We used a well-tested simulation model, APSIM-Sorghum, to evaluate the impact of temperatures +1°C, +2°C, +3°C, +4°C and +5°C above current temperatures measured over the past ∼50years at four sites in eastern and southern Africa, namely, Katumani and Makindu in Kenya, Chitala in Malawi and Beitbridge in Zimbabwe, on the yield, aboveground biomass, transpiration and soil evaporation of short-, medium- and long-duration sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] cultivars given, 0, 20, 40, and 80kg nitrogen (N)ha−1. When fertilized with 80kgNha−1, warming temperatures decreased average yields at Chitala and Beitbridge and yields were unchanged at Makindu and Katumani, but with no added fertilizer average yields increased with increase in temperature at all sites except the hottest and driest site, Beitbridge, where the simulated yields decreased with increasing temperature. Simulation of the changes in soil organic carbon showed that the higher temperatures increased the rate of loss of soil organic carbon and increased nitrogen uptake at all except the driest and hottest site. A micro-dose (20kgNha−1) of added nitrogen increased the simulated yields by an average of 19% at Beitbridge, 36% at Makindu, 59% at Katumani and 72% at Chitala, considerably greater than any increase from increased temperatures. The use of longer-duration cultivars and lower or higher populations could not consistently be used to overcome any reductions in yield from warming temperatures. We conclude that low-input, small-holder farmers will not immediately have reduced sorghum yields as a consequence of global warming, but micro-dosing with nitrogen fertilizer will significantly increase yields even in the hottest and driest locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Turner, Neil C. & Rao, K.P.C., 2013. "Simulation analysis of factors affecting sorghum yield at selected sites in eastern and southern Africa, with emphasis on increasing temperatures," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 53-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:121:y:2013:i:c:p:53-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X13000711
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2013.06.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, James W. & Mishra, Ashok & Rao, K.P.C. & Indeje, Matayo & Ngugi, Robinson Kinuthia, 2009. "Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 80-90, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belay Kassie & Senthold Asseng & Reimund Rotter & Huib Hengsdijk & Alex Ruane & Martin Ittersum, 2015. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 145-158, March.
    2. Sridhar Gummadi & M D M Kadiyala & K P C Rao & Ioannis Athanasiadis & Richard Mulwa & Mary Kilavi & Gizachew Legesse & Tilahun Amede, 2020. "Simulating adaptation strategies to offset potential impacts of climate variability and change on maize yields in Embu County, Kenya," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Batanai Sammie & Elvis Mupfiga & Liboster Mwadzingeni & Tavengwa Chitata & Raymond Mugandani, 2021. "A gendered lens to self-evaluated and actual climate change knowledge," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 65-75, March.
    4. Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davey, Michael & Brookshaw, Anca, 2011. "Long-range meteorological forecasting and links to agricultural applications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 88-93.
    2. Hayashi, Keiichi & Llorca, Lizzida & Rustini, Sri & Setyanto, Prihasto & Zaini, Zulkifli, 2018. "Reducing vulnerability of rainfed agriculture through seasonal climate predictions: A case study on the rainfed rice production in Southeast Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 66-76.
    3. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2022. "Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Agricultural Productivity in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Rodrigues, Joao & Thurlow, James & Landman, Willem & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju, 2016. "The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1546, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2021. "Performance of a wheat yield prediction model and factors influencing the performance: A review and meta-analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Carla Roncoli & Benjamin Orlove & Merit Kabugo & Milton Waiswa, 2011. "Cultural styles of participation in farmers’ discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 28(1), pages 123-138, February.
    7. Edward R. Carr, 2022. "Climate Services and Transformational Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Nidumolu, U.B. & Lubbers, M. & Kanellopoulos, A. & van Ittersum, M.K. & Kadiyala, D.M. & Sreenivas, G., 2016. "Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 175-184.
    9. World Bank, 2010. "Improving Water Management in Rainfed Agriculture : Issues and Options in Water-Constrained Production Systems," World Bank Publications - Reports 13028, The World Bank Group.
    10. Mishra, Ashok & Siderius, Christian & Aberson, Kenny & van der Ploeg, Martine & Froebrich, Jochen, 2013. "Short-term rainfall forecasts as a soft adaptation to climate change in irrigation management in North-East India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 97-106.
    11. Wineman, Ayala & Crawford, Eric W., 2014. "Climate Change and Crop Choice in Zambia: A Mathematical Programming Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170646, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Lina Novickyté, 2019. "Risk in agriculture: An overview of the theoretical insights and recent development trends during last decade - A review," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(9), pages 435-444.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:121:y:2013:i:c:p:53-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.