Non-falsified Expectations and General Equilibrium Asset Pricing: The Power of the Peso
We discuss the extent to which the expectation of a rare event which happens not to materialise over the sample period, but which is not rationally excludable from the set of possibilities--the peso problem--can affect the behaviour of rational agents and the characteristics of market equilibrium. To that end we describe quantitatively the macroeconomic and financial properties of a standard equilibrium business cycle model modified to allow for a very small probability of a depression state. We produce a model specification for which both business cycle characteristics and mean financial returns are in accord with United States observations.
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Volume (Year): 109 (1999)
Issue (Month): 458 (October)
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