IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-15-00099.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Step-by-Step Causality Revisited: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos N. Konstantakis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Panayotis G. Michaelides

    (National Technical University of Athens)

Abstract

The present paper introduces a VAR model with exogenous variables for testing one-sided (non-)causality by extending the works of Dufour and Renault (1998) and Dufour et al. (2006). In this context, it derives a test statistic for formally investigating one sided (non-)causality, while providing a simple algorithm for implementing the one sided (non-)causality test in a system framework and not equation-by-equation extending, thus, Dufour et al. (2006). We illustrate our approach by using a monthly dataset including dummy variables on Total Car Sales in the area of Athens over the period 2003-2012. According to our findings all variables cause the evolution of Total Sales cycles immediately and for almost eight (8) quarters when most of the causality effects die out completely. Clearly, future research on extending the methodology to a panel set-up would be of great interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2015. "Step-by-Step Causality Revisited: Theory and Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 871-877.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I2-P90.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    2. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    3. Jean-Marie Dufour & David Tessier, 2006. "Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices," Staff Working Papers 06-39, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daglis, Theodoros & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2019. "Solar events and economic activity: Evidence from the US Telecommunications industry (1996–2014)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Yang, Weiping, 2014. "Granger-causality in quantiles between financial markets: Using copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 70-78.
    2. Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Testing causality between two vectors in multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 876-894.
    3. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Bouras, Christos & Christou, Christina & Hassapis, Christis, 2018. "Multi-horizon wealth effects across the G7 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 165-176.
    5. Daglis, Theodoros & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2019. "Solar events and economic activity: Evidence from the US Telecommunications industry (1996–2014)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    6. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    7. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
    8. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Apostolos G. Christopoulos & Ioannis G. Dokas & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2019. "Business cycles in Greek maritime transport: an econometric exploration (1998–2015)," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1059-1079, December.
    9. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2019. "Testing subspace Granger causality," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 42-61.
    10. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    11. Zhidong Bai & Yongchang Hui & Dandan Jiang & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong & Shurong Zheng, 2018. "A new test of multivariate nonlinear causality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.
    12. Giovanni Angelini & Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Giovanni Caggiano & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Uncertainty across volatility regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, April.
    13. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2020. "Testing a large set of zero restrictions in regression models, with an application to mixed frequency Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 633-654.
    15. Dimitris Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "On causal Relationships Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Better Than You Think," Studies in Economics 0909, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Oil price and exchange rate in India: Fresh evidence from continuous wavelet approach and asymmetric, multi-horizon Granger-causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 272-283.
    18. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    19. Jonathan B. Hill, 2005. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization up to Three Steps Ahead: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0503016, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2005.
    20. Bauer, Dietmar & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Persistence-robust surplus-lag Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 293-300.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality testing; asymptotics; VAR; car sales; Greece.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.